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Bayesian Analysis Of A Fractional Cointegration Model

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Author Info
Gael Martin

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Abstract

The concept of fractional cointegration, whereby deviations from an equilibrium relationship follow a fractionally integrated process, has attracted some attention of late. The extended concept allows cointegration to be associated with mean reversion in the error, rather than requiring the more stringent condition of stationarity. This paper presents a Bayesian method for conducting inference about fractional cointegration. The method is based on an approximation of the exact likelihood, with a Jeffreys prior being used to offset identification problems. Numerical results are produced via a combination of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. The procedure is applied to several purchasing power parity relations, with substantial evidence found in favor of parity reversion.

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File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1081/ETC-100103824&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Econometric Reviews.

Volume (Year): 20 (2001)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 217-234
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Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:20:y:2001:i:2:p:217-234

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Related research
Keywords: Fractional cointegration; Bayesian inference; Jeffreys prior; Markov chain Monte Carlo; JEL+Classification:+C11> JEL Classification: C11; C32;

References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004. "Fractional cointegration in the consumption and income relationship using semiparametric techniques," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(47), pages 1-8. [Downloadable!]
  2. C.S. Forbes & G.M. Martin & J. Wright, 2002. "Bayesian Estimation of a Stochastic Volatility Model Using Option and Spot Prices," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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