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US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks

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Author Info
Gael M. Martin (Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria 3168, Australia)

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Abstract

Recent empirical work has questioned the consistency of US fiscal policy with an intertemporal budget constraint. Empirical results have tended to indicate that the deficit process has undergone at least one structural shift during recent decades, with the deficit becoming either unsustainable or sustainable in only a weak sense in the post-shift period. In this paper, we re-examine sustainability using a new approach, based on a cointegration model with multiple endogenous breaks. A Bayesian methodology is applied, incorporating Markov chain Monte Carlo simulators. In contrast to previous analyses, we find evidence of a sustainable deficit process over the 1947-1992 period, despite the occurrence of breaks during the 1970s and 1980s. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 15 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 83-105
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:15:y:2000:i:1:p:83-105

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Óscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Díaz-Roldán & Vicente Esteve, . "Us Deficit Sustainability Revisited: A Multiple Structural Change Approach," Working Papers 19-05 Classification-JEL , Instituto de Estudios Fiscales. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Philip Arestis & Andrea Cipollini & Bassam Fattouh, 2003. "Threshold Effects in the US Budget Deficit," CEIS Research Paper 18, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Amir Kia, 2005. "Sustainability of the Fiscal Process in Developing Countries- Egypt, Iran and Turkey: A Multicointegration Approach," Carleton Economic Papers 05-08, Carleton University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Gael Martin, 2001. "Bayesian Analysis Of A Fractional Cointegration Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 217-234. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Díaz-Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2003. "Is the Budget Deficit Sustainable when Fiscal Policy is nonlinear? The Case of Spain, 1961-2001," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2003/32, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
  6. Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2002. "Is the US Fiscal Deficit Sustainable? A Fractionally Integrated and Cointegrated Approach," Faculty Working Papers 03/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
  7. Chun Liu & John M Maheu, 2007. "Are there Structural Breaks in Realized Volatility?," Working Papers tecipa-304, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. R. Paap & H.K. van Dijk, 2002. "Bayes estimates of Markov trends in possibly cointegrated series," Econometric Institute Report 295, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
  9. Antonio Afonso, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability: the Unpleasant European Case," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 57, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2005. "Regime Changes And The Sustainability Of Fiscal Imbalance In East Asian Countries," Macroeconomics 0504001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Inference of General Linear Restrictions on the Cointegration Space," Working Paper Series 189, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  12. Gebhard Kirchgässner & Silika Prohl, 2006. "Sustainability of Swiss Fiscal Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Roberto Ricciuti, 2004. "Punishment and Counter-punishment in Public Goods Games: Can we still govern ourselves?," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/06, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Apr 2004. [Downloadable!]
  14. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2005. "Assessing The Mean Reversion Behavior Of Fiscal Policy: The Case Of Asian Countries," Macroeconomics 0504002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  15. Issouf Samake & Evan Tanner, 2007. "Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey," IMF Working Papers 06/295, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Andrea, SILVESTRINI, 2007. "Testing fiscal sustainability in Poland : a Bayesian analysis of cointegration," Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques Working Paper 2007040, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
  17. Ho-Chuan Huang & Wan-hsiu Cheng, 2005. "Tests of the CAPM under structural changes," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 523-541, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Ananda Jayawickrama & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2006. "Sustainability Of Fiscal Deficits: The U.S. Experience 1929-2004," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 05xx, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE. [Downloadable!]
  19. C.S. Forbes & G.M. Martin & J. Wright, 2002. "Bayesian Estimation of a Stochastic Volatility Model Using Option and Spot Prices," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  20. Roberto Ricciuti, 2004. "Nonlinearity in testing for fiscal sustainability," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 80, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  21. Rodney W. Strachan, 2005. "Bayesian Inference in Cointegrated I (2) Systems: a Generalisation of the Triangular Model," Discussion Papers in Economics 05/14, Department of Economics, University of Leicester. [Downloadable!]
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