Advanced Search

Papers Articles Authors Institutions Data (FRED®)

Abstract

Recent empirical work has questioned the consistency of US fiscal policy with an intertemporal budget constraint. Empirical results have tended to indicate that the deficit process has undergone at least one structural shift during recent decades, with the deficit becoming either unsustainable or sustainable in only a weak sense in the post-shift period. In this paper, we re-examine sustainability using a new approach, based on a cointegration model with multiple endogenous breaks. A Bayesian methodology is applied, incorporating Markov chain Monte Carlo simulators. In contrast to previous analyses, we find evidence of a sustainable deficit process over the 1947-1992 period, despite the occurrence of breaks during the 1970s and 1980s. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2000-v15.1/
File Function: Supporting data files and programs
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 15 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 83-105

as HTML HTML with abstract plain text plain text with abstract BibTeX RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite) ReDIF in new window

Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:15:y:2000:i:1:p:83-105

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/jcatalog/subscribe.jsp?issn=0883-7252

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

• H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as HTML HTML with abstract plain text plain text with abstract BibTeX RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite) ReDIF in new window

1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 321-35, July.
   
   • Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
2. Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
   
   • Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
   • Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
3. John Geweke, 1998. "Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development, and communication," Staff Report 249, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
   
   • John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73.
4. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
   
   • Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
   • Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
5. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 774-808, August.
   
   • Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1017, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
6. Dijk, H.K. Van & Schotman, P., 1991. "A Bayesian analysis of the unit root in real exchange rates," Open Access publications from Maastricht University urn:nbn:nl:ui:27-5931, Maastricht University.
7. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Bayesian Routes and Unit Roots: de rebus prioribus semper est disputandum," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 986, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
   
   • Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Bayesian Routes and Unit Roots: De Rebus Prioribus Semper Est Disputandum," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 435-73, Oct.-Dec..
8. Wilcox, David W, 1989. "The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 291-306, August.
   
   • David W. Wilcox, 1987. "The substainability of government deficits: implications of the present- value borrowing constraint," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
9. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
   
   • Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's threshold estimation and testing results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00091, Boston College Department of Economics.
   • Tom Doan, . "TAR: RATS procedure to estimate a threshold autoregression, tests for threshold effect," Statistical Software Components RTS00209, Boston College Department of Economics.
   • Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
10. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1990. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 950, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    
    • Phillips, P C B, 1991. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 333-64, Oct.-Dec..
11. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:774-808 is not listed on IDEAS
12. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-19, September.
    
    • James D. Hamilton & Marjorie A. Flavin, 1985. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing," NBER Working Papers 1632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
13. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
14. Haug, Alfred A, 1991. "Cointegration and Government Borrowing Constraints: Evidence for the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 97-101, January.
15. Frank Kleibergen & Herman K. van Dijk, 1998. "Bayesian Simultaneous Equations Analysis using Reduced Rank Structures," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-025/4, Tinbergen Institute.
16. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1987. "Partially Identified Econometric Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 845R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1988.
    
    • Phillips, P.C.B., 1989. "Partially Identified Econometric Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 181-240, August.
17. Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1988. "Testing intertemporal budget constraints: theory and applications to U. S. federal budget and current account deficits," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 88-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    
    • Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-23, May.
18. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-60, August.
    
    • Tom Doan, . "GREGORYHANSEN: RATS procedure to implement Gregory-Hansen test for Cointegration with breaks," Statistical Software Components RTS00082, Boston College Department of Economics.
19. Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Estimation and comparison of multiple change-point models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 221-241, June.
20. de la Croix, David & Lubrano, Michel, 1994. "Are Interest Rates Responsible for Unemployment in the Eighties ? A Bayesian Analysis of Cointegrated Relationship with a Regime Shift," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1994015, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
21. Schotman, Peter & van Dijk, Herman K., 1991. "A Bayesian analysis of the unit root in real exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 195-238.
22. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1996. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 409-431, August.
23. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1988. "Searching For a Break in GNP," NBER Working Papers 2695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    
    • Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992. "Searching for a Break in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-50, July.
24. Eric Zivot & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "A Bayesian Analysis of Trend Determination in Economic Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1002, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
25. Chib, Siddhartha, 1993. "Bayes regression with autoregressive errors : A Gibbs sampling approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 275-294, August.
26. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    
    • Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
27. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
28. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
    
    • Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1987. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 87-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
29. Kleibergen, Frank & van Dijk, Herman K., 1998. "Bayesian Simultaneous Equations Analysis Using Reduced Rank Structures," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(06), pages 701-743, December.
    
    • Kleibergen, F.R. & Dijk, H.K. van, 1997. "Bayesian Simultaneous Equations Analysis using Reduced Rank Structures," Econometric Institute Report EI 9714/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
30. Kleibergen, Frank & van Dijk, Herman K., 1994. "On the Shape of the Likelihood/Posterior in Cointegration Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 514-551, August.
31. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "The Long-Run Australian Consumption Function Reexamined: An Empirical Exercise in Bayesian Influence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1000, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
32. Bai, Jushan & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1998. "Testing for and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432, July.
33. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:3:p:409-31 is not listed on IDEAS
34. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895.
35. Chao, J. C. & Phillips, P. C. B., 1998. "Posterior distributions in limited information analysis of the simultaneous equations model using the Jeffreys prior," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 49-86, August.
36. Lubrano, Michel, 1995. "Testing for unit roots in a Bayesian framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 81-109, September.

Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as HTML HTML with abstract plain text plain text with abstract BibTeX RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite) ReDIF in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:15:y:2000:i:1:p:83-105

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

---

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.

Privacy Legal