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Fiscal Sustainability: the Unpleasant European Case

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Antonio Afonso (European Central Bank & ISEG/UTL-Technical University of Lisbon)

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Paper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 with number 57.

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Date of creation: 17 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc04:57

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  1. MacDonald, Ronald, 1992. "Some Tests of the Government's Intertemporal Budget Constraint Using U.S. Data," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 24(12), pages 1287-92, December.
  2. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  3. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2002. "Fiscal policy in Sweden: effects of EMU criteria convergence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 121-136, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Willem H. Buiter, 2002. "The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level: A Critique," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(481), pages 459-480, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 351-374, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Nigel Andrew Chalk & Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 00/81, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Owoye, Oluwole, 1995. "The Causal Relationship between Taxes and Expenditures in the G7 Countries: Cointegration and Error-Correction Models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 19-22, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Baglioni, Angelo & Cherubini, Umberto, 1993. "Intertemporal Budget Constraint and Public Debt Sustainability: The Case of Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 275-83, February.
  10. Graham Elliott & Colm Kearney, . "The Intertemporal Government Budget Constraint and Tests for Bubbles," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp8809, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  11. Haug, Alfred A, 1995. "Has Federal Budget Deficit Policy Changed in Recent Years?," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 104-18, January.
  12. Olekalns, N., 1999. "Sustainability and Stability? Australian Fiscal Policy in the 20th Century," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 721, The University of Melbourne.
  13. Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Wilcox, David W, 1989. "The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 291-306, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. James D. Hamilton & Marjorie A. Flavin, 1985. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing," NBER Working Papers 1632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Uctum, Merih & Wickens, Michael, 2000. " Debt and Deficit Ceilings, and Sustainability of Fiscal Policies: An Intertemporal Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(2), pages 197-222, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Bergman, Michael, 2001. "Testing Government Solvency and the No Ponzi Game Condition," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 27-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
  19. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-23, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Haug, Alfred A, 1991. "Cointegration and Government Borrowing Constraints: Evidence for the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 97-101, January.
  22. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, 1995. "Bubble Finance and Debt Sustainability: A Test of the Government's Intertemporal Budget Constraint," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 27(12), pages 1135-43, December.
  23. Feve, Patrick & Henin, Pierre-Yves, 2000. " Assessing Effective Sustainability of Fiscal Policy within the G-7," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(2), pages 175-95, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
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  25. McCallum, Bennett T, 1984. "Are Bond-Financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 123-35, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1998. "Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1836, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Bravo, Ana Bela Santos & Silvestre, Antonio Luis, 2002. "Intertemporal sustainability of fiscal policies: some tests for European countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 517-528, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Payne, James E, 1997. "International Evidence on the Sustainability of Budget Deficits," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(12), pages 775-79, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Smith, Gregor W & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Persistent Deficits and the Market Value of Government Debt," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 31-44, Jan.-Marc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. Makrydakis, S. & Tzavalis, E. & Balfoussias, A., 1996. "Policy Regime Changes and the Long-Run Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: An Application to Greece," Discussion Papers 96/01, University of Exeter, School of Business and Economics.
  32. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
  35. Liu, Peter & Tanner, Evan, 1995. "Intertemporal Solvency and Breaks in the U.S. Deficit Process: A Maximum-Likelihood Cointegration Approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(7), pages 231-35, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  36. John T. Cuddington, 1997. "Analysing the Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits in Developing Countries," International Finance 9706001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  37. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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