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A Longer-run Perspective on Fiscal Sustainability

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  • António Afonso
  • João Tovar Jalles

Abstract

This paper investigates the sustainability of fiscal policy in a set of 19 countries by taking a longer-run secular perspective over the period 1880-2009. Via a systematic analysis of the stationarity properties of the first-differenced level of government debt, and disentangling the components of the debt series using Structural Time Series Models, we are able to conclude that the solvency condition would be satisfied in mostly all cases since non-stationarity can be rejected, and, therefore, longer-run fiscal sustainability cannot be rejected (Japan and Spain can be exceptions). The same would be true for the panel sample analysis.

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File URL: http://pascal.iseg.utl.pt/~depeco/wp/wp172011.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon. in its series Working Papers with number 2011/17.

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Date of creation: Aug 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp172011

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page: https://aquila.iseg.utl.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC

Related research

Keywords: fiscal sustainability; government debt; unit roots; breaks; structural time series models Classification-C23; E62; H62;

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References

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  1. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2002. "Fiscal policy in Sweden: effects of EMU criteria convergence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 121-136, January.
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  3. Fève, Patrick & Hénin, Pierre-Yves, 1998. "Assessing effective sustainability of fiscal policy within the G-7," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9815, CEPREMAP.
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  9. António Afonso, 2005. "Ricardian Fiscal Regimes in the European Union," Working Papers 2005/18, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon..
  10. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Luintel, Kul B., 2007. "Government solvency: Revisiting some EMU countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 387-410, June.
  11. Martin, G.M., 1998. "U.S. Deficit Sustainability: A New Approach Based on Multiple Endogenous Breaks," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/98, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  12. Harvey, Andrew, 1997. "Trends, Cycles and Autoregressions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 192-201, January.
  13. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
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  16. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "A Historical Public Debt Database," IMF Working Papers 10/245, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Antonio Afonso, 2010. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 105-109.
  18. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-, March.
  19. Bravo, Ana Bela Santos & Silvestre, Antonio Luis, 2002. "Intertemporal sustainability of fiscal policies: some tests for European countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 517-528, September.
  20. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2012. "Fiscal Equalization Schemes and Fiscal Sustainability," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 141, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  2. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2012. "Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries," Working Paper Series 1465, European Central Bank.

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