Regime Changes And The Sustainability Of Fiscal Imbalance In East Asian Countries
AbstractIn the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, fiscal policy is playing a bigger role in smoothing the business cycle and getting the crisis-affected countries back on their growth paths. The main purpose of this paper is to assess empirically the fiscal policy regimes in five Asian countries using a formal framework based on the government’s intertemporal budget constraints (GIBC). For this purpose, we relied on an array of time-series methods and quarterly frequency data of nearly three decades that ended in 2003:Q2. Our conclusions are; first, the evidence indicates that the fiscal stance in Thailand and Korea are on their sustainable path while the Philippines and Malaysia satisfy only the necessary condition for sustainability. Second, we found that revenues are growing at a rate faster than government spending for Singapore, a country that have recorded large surpluses for most of the sample period. Third, the results show a one-way causation from expenditure to revenue for Korea, Singapore and Thailand. This finding indicates that reducing the size of government spending may improve fiscal budget deficits without having to undergo changes in the overall strategy. Fourth, we observed a long-run feedback causality in the revenue-expenditure nexus for the case of Malaysia and the Philippines, which may require fiscal synchronization instrument policies to moderate the post-crisis fiscal imbalances. Together, these results demonstrate the diverse fiscal patterns but they should be useful as a means of understanding the complexities of economic integration in the region.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0504001.
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2005
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - doc
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://188.8.131.52
fiscal sustainability; government intertemporal budget constraint; nonstationarity.;
Other versions of this item:
- Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan, 2007. "Regime changes and the sustainability of fiscal imbalance in East Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 878-894, November.
- E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-04-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2005-04-16 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-SEA-2005-04-16 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sebastian Edwards, 2002.
"Debt Relief and Fiscal Sustainability,"
NBER Working Papers
8939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebastian Edwards, 2003. "Debt relief and fiscal sustainability," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 38-65, March.
- Hoover, K.D. & Sheffrin, S.M., 1990.
"Causation, Spending And Taxes: Sand In The Sandbox Or Tax Collector For The Welfare State,"
67, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
- Kevin D. Hoover & Steven M. Sheffrin, 1990. "Causation, spending and taxes: sand in the sandbox or tax collector for the welfare state?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
- Hoover, Kevin D & Sheffrin, Steven M, 1992. "Causation, Spending, and Taxes: Sand in the Sandbox or Tax Collector for the Welfare State?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 225-48, March.
- Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
- Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1987.
"Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
87-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
- Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994.
"Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag,"
Cahiers de recherche
9423, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Barro, Robert J, 1979.
"On the Determination of the Public Debt,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Annalisa Fedelino & Alina Kudina, 2003. "Fiscal Sustainability in African HIPC Countries: A Policy Dilemma?," IMF Working Papers 03/187, International Monetary Fund.
- Cashin, Paul & Ul Haque, Nadeem & Olekalns, Nilss, 2003. "Tax smoothing, tax tilting and fiscal sustainability in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 47-67, January.
- Feve, Patrick & Henin, Pierre-Yves, 2000.
" Assessing Effective Sustainability of Fiscal Policy within the G-7,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(2), pages 175-95, May.
- Fève, Patrick & Hénin, Pierre-Yves, 1998. "Assessing effective sustainability of fiscal policy within the G-7," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9815, CEPREMAP.
- Enzo Croce & V. Hugo Juan-Ramon, 2003. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability: A Cross Country Comparison," IMF Working Papers 03/145, International Monetary Fund.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991.
"A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- Krugman, Paul, 1988.
"Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 253-268, November.
- Koo, Chung Mo, 2002. "Fiscal sustainability in the wake of the economic crisis in Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 659-669.
- Makrydakis, S. & Tzavalis, E. & Balfoussias, A., 1996.
"Policy Regime Changes and the Long-Run Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: An Application to Greece,"
9601, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
- Makrydakis, Stelios & Tzavalis, Elias & Balfoussias, Athanassios, 1998. "Policy regime changes and the long-run sustainability of fiscal policy: an application to Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 71-86, January.
- Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 1999.
"Fiscal Policy in Sweden: Effects of EMU Criteria Convergence,"
1999:5, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised Nov 1999.
- Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2002. "Fiscal policy in Sweden: effects of EMU criteria convergence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 121-136, January.
- William R. Cline, 1995. "International Debt Reexamined," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 46.
- Cipollini, Andrea, 2001. "Testing for Government Intertemporal Solvency: A Smooth Transition Error Correction Model Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(6), pages 643-55, December.
- MacKinnon, James G, 1996.
"Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
- James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Green, Christopher J. & Holmes, Mark J. & Kowalski, Tadeusz, 2001. "Poland: a successful transition to budget sustainability?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 161-183, June.
- Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "ERSTEST: RATS procedure to perform Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock unit root tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00066, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "GLSDETREND: RATS procedure to perform local to unity GLS detrending," Statistical Software Components RTS00077, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986.
"On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-19, September.
- James D. Hamilton & Marjorie A. Flavin, 1985. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing," NBER Working Papers 1632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin, G.M., 1998.
"U.S. Deficit Sustainability: A New Approach Based on Multiple Endogenous Breaks,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
1/98, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105.
- Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996.
"Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
- Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate results from Gregory and Hansen(1996) JOE article," Statistical Software Components RTZ00081, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "GREGORYHANSEN: RATS procedure to implement Gregory-Hansen test for Cointegration with breaks," Statistical Software Components RTS00082, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Tom Doan, . "KPSS: RATS procedure to perform KPSS (Kwiatowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin) stationarity test," Statistical Software Components RTS00100, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "The behavior of US public debt: a nonlinear perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-125, December.
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
- Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
- Bravo, Ana Bela Santos & Silvestre, Antonio Luis, 2002. "Intertemporal sustainability of fiscal policies: some tests for European countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 517-528, September.
- J. Bradford DeLong, 1998. "The budget deficit," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan30.
- Nigel Andrew Chalk & Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 00/81, International Monetary Fund.
- Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "Fiscal deficits under financial pressure and insolvency: Evidence for Italy, Greece and Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 730-749.
- Vasco Gabriel & Pataaree Sangduan, 2009.
"Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Subject to Policy Changes: a Markov Switching Cointegration Approach,"
School of Economics Discussion Papers
0309, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Vasco Gabriel & Pataaree Sangduan, 2011. "Assessing fiscal sustainability subject to policy changes: a Markov switching cointegration approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 371-385, October.
- Samuel S. Jibao & Niek Schoeman & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2011.
"Fiscal regime changes and the sustainability of fiscal imbalance in South Africa; a smooth transition error-correction approach,"
228, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- Samuel S Jibao & Niek Schoeman & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2010. "Fiscal Regime Changes and the Sustainability of Fiscal Imbalance in South Africa: A Smooth Transition Error-Correction Approach," Working Papers 201023, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Chin-Hong Puah Author_Email: firstname.lastname@example.org & Evan Lau & Hui-Fern Teo, 2011. "Testing Budget Sustainability In Sarawak State," 2nd International Conference on Business and Economic Research (2nd ICBER 2011) Proceeding 2011-221, Conference Master Resources.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.