Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case

Contents:

Author Info

  • António Afonso

Abstract

The sustainability of fiscal deficits has been receiving increasing attention. The issue is paramount for the newly formed euro area, and that is one of the motivations of this paper. In order to assess the sustainability of budget deficits, cointegration tests between public expenditures and public revenues, allowing for structural breaks, are performed for the EU-15 countries for the 1970-2003 period. The "unpleasant" empirical results show that with few exceptions fiscal policy may not have been sustainable. EU governments therefore may risk becoming inherently highly indebted, even though the debt-to-GDP ratios seemed to be somehow stabilizing at the end of the 1990s.

Download Info

To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen in its journal FinanzArchiv.

Volume (Year): 61 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 19-

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:mhr:finarc:urn:sici:0015-2218(200503)61:1_19:fstuec_2.0.tx_2-r

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.mohr.de/fa

Order Information:
Postal: Mohr Siebeck GmbH & Co. KG, P.O.Box 2040, 72010 Tübingen, Germany
Email:

Related research

Keywords: budget deficit; intertemporal budget constraint; fiscal policy sustainability; European Union;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Bravo, Ana Bela Santos & Silvestre, Antonio Luis, 2002. "Intertemporal sustainability of fiscal policies: some tests for European countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 517-528, September.
  2. Shaghil Ahmed & John H. Rogers, 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits: are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," International Finance Discussion Papers 494, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  4. Makrydakis, S. & Tzavalis, E. & Balfoussias, A., 1996. "Policy Regime Changes and the Long-Run Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: An Application to Greece," Discussion Papers 9601, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
  6. McCallum, Bennett T, 1984. "Are Bond-Financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 123-35, February.
  7. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
  8. James Payne, 1997. "International evidence on the sustainability of budget deficits," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(12), pages 775-779.
  9. Oluwole Owoye, 1995. "The causal relationship between taxes and expenditures in the G7 countries: cointegration and error-correction models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 19-22.
  10. Michael Getzner & Ernst Glatzer & Reinhard Neck, 2001. "On the Sustainability of Austrian Budgetary Policies," Empirica, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 21-40, March.
  11. Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1987. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 87-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. John T. Cuddington, 1997. "Analysing the Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits in Developing Countries," International Finance 9706001, EconWPA.
  13. Fève, Patrick & Hénin, Pierre-Yves, 1998. "Assessing effective sustainability of fiscal policy within the G-7," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9815, CEPREMAP.
  14. Willem H. Buiter, 2002. "The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level: A Critique," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(481), pages 459-480, July.
  15. Pierre-Yves Hénin, 1997. "Soutenabilité des déficits et ajustements budgétaires," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 371-395.
  16. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August.
  17. Uctum, Merih & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Debt and Deficit Ceilings, and Sustainability of Fiscal Policies: An Intertemporal Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1612, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Michael Bergman, 2001. "Testing government solvency and the No Ponzi Game condition," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 27-29.
  19. Haug, Alfred A, 1995. "Has Federal Budget Deficit Policy Changed in Recent Years?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(1), pages 104-18, January.
  20. Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1988. "Testing intertemporal budget constraints: theory and applications to U. S. federal budget and current account deficits," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 88-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  21. Peter Liu & Evan Tanner, 1995. "Intertemporal solvency and breaks in the US deficit process: a maximum-likelihood cointegration approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(7), pages 231-235.
  22. Olekalns, N., 1999. "Sustainability and Stability? Australian Fiscal Policy in the 20th Century," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 721, The University of Melbourne.
  23. David W. Wilcox, 1987. "The substainability of government deficits: implications of the present- value borrowing constraint," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2002. "Fiscal policy in Sweden: effects of EMU criteria convergence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 121-136, January.
  25. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
  26. Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  27. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe," Working Papers 142, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  28. Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105.
  29. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  30. James D. Hamilton & Marjorie A. Flavin, 1985. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing," NBER Working Papers 1632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Smith, Gregor W & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Persistent Deficits and the Market Value of Government Debt," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 31-44, Jan.-Marc.
  32. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
  33. Holzmann, Robert & Palacios, Robert & Zviniene, Asta, 2004. "Implicit pension debt: issues, measurement and scope in international perspective," Social Protection Discussion Papers 30153, The World Bank.
  34. Philipp C. Rother & Marco Catenaro & Gerhard Schwab, 2004. "Aging and Pensions in the Euro Area," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 60(4), pages 593-, December.
  35. Graham Elliott & Colm Kearney, 1988. "The Intertemporal Government Budget Constraint and Tests for Bubbles," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp8809, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  36. Rother, P.C. & Catenaro, M. & Schwab, G., 2003. "Ageing and pensions in the Euro Area Survey and projection results," Social Protection Discussion Papers 25986, The World Bank.
  37. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
  38. Nigel Andrew Chalk & Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 00/81, International Monetary Fund.
  39. Haug, Alfred A, 1991. "Cointegration and Government Borrowing Constraints: Evidence for the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 97-101, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mhr:finarc:urn:sici:0015-2218(200503)61:1_19:fstuec_2.0.tx_2-r. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Wolpert).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.