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Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large"?: Some Further Evidence

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Author Info
Tanner, Evan
Liu, Peter

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Abstract

The size of the federal budget deficit has alarmed politicians and the general public both. Following recent work, the authors examine the long-run solvency of the U.S. government by testing for cointegration of federal expenditures and revenues. They include a break term in the cointegrating recession for 1981 to capture a shift in the fiscal process in the first Reagan administration. Tests show the break to be significant; and with the break, in contrast to earlier work, expenditures and revenues are cointegrated with a coefficient of one. Thus, the authors find the deficit to be stationary and so potentially sustainable. Copyright 1994 by Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Economic Inquiry.

Volume (Year): 32 (1994)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 511-18
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Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:32:y:1994:i:3:p:511-18

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  1. Hüseyin Kalyoncu, 2006. "International Intertemporal Solvency In Oecd Countries: Evidence From Panel Unit Root," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2006(1), pages 44-49. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2002. "Is the US Fiscal Deficit Sustainable? A Fractionally Integrated and Cointegrated Approach," Faculty Working Papers 03/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
  3. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008. "What do we really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Cuddington, John T., 1997. "Analyzing the sustainability of fiscal deficitsin developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1784, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Huseyin Kalyoncu, 2005. "Sustainability Of Current Account For Turkey: Intertemporal Solvency Approach," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2005(1), pages 82-88. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. James Payne & Hassan Mohammadi, 2006. "Are Adjustments in the U.S. Budget Deficit Asymmetric? Another Look at Sustainability," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(1), pages 15-22, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2007. "What We Really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic," Working Papers 2007/20, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
  8. Maria do Rosario Correia & Reinhard Neck & Theodore Panagiotidis & Christian Richter, 2008. "An empirical investigation of the sustainability of the public deficit in Portugal," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 209-223, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. John T. Cuddington, 1997. "Analysing the Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits in Developing Countries," International Finance 9706001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Philip Arestis & Andrea Cipollini & Bassam Fattouh, 2002. "Threshold Effects in the U.S. Budget Deficit," Economics Working Paper Archive 358, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Giancarlo Marini & Alessandro Piergallini, 2008. "Indicators and Tests of Fiscal Sustainability: An Integrated Approach," CEIS Research Paper 111, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 11 Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
  12. Mark J. Holmes & Theodore Panagiotidis & Jesus Otero, 2008. "Are EU budgets stationary?," Discussion Paper Series 2008_07, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2008. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ananda Jayawickrama & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2006. "Sustainability Of Fiscal Deficits: The U.S. Experience 1929-2004," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 05xx, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE. [Downloadable!]
  14. Cashin, P. & Olekalns, N., 2000. "An Examination of the Sustainability of Indian Fiscal Policy," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 748, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
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