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Aging and Pensions in the Euro Area

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  • Philipp C. Rother
  • Marco Catenaro
  • Gerhard Schwab

Abstract

Population aging will impose a significant burden on European pay-as-you-go pension systems. This study presents an estimate of this burden for the four largest euro-area countries and assesses alternative reform approaches. With prudent and realistic assumptions, the present value of future pension deficits through 2050 is estimated at 64% of GDP, adding to the current average explicit debt stock of around 70% of GDP. Feasible parametric reforms represent no durable solution, as they can balance pension systems at best temporarily. A comprehensive reform, including changes to current systems and a move towards partial funding, can ensure permanent financial sustainability of the public pension system.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen in its journal FinanzArchiv.

Volume (Year): 60 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 593-

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Handle: RePEc:mhr:finarc:urn:sici:0015-2218(200412)60:4_593:aapite_2.0.tx_2-_

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Related research

Keywords: aging; pensions; pay-as-you-go systems; fiscal sustainability;

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Cited by:
  1. Eschenbach, Felix & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2002. "Asset prices and fiscal balances," Working Paper Series 0141, European Central Bank.
  2. Muriel Bouchet, 2003. "The sustainability of the private sector pension system from a long-term perspective: the case of Luxembourg," BCL working papers 6, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  3. Gugushvili, Alexi, 2007. "Giving the ageing of the population how can countries afford pay-as-you-go social insurance pensions?," MPRA Paper 2869, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-, March.
  5. Eric Thode, 2003. "Securing Pensions for the Next Fifty Years - Achievements of Recent Reforms in Selected Countries," CESifo DICE Report, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(1), pages 03-10, October.
  6. Miriam Steurer, 2009. "Fertility Decisions and the Sustainability of Defined Benefit Pay-as-You-Go Pension Systems," Discussion Papers 2009-06, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  7. Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004. "EU fiscal rules: issues and lessons from political economy," Working Paper Series 0421, European Central Bank.
  8. Euwals, Rob & Knoef, Marike & van Vuuren, Daniel, 2007. "The Trend in Female Labour Force Participation: What Can Be Expected for the Future?," IZA Discussion Papers 3225, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Loumrhari, Ghizlan, 2013. "Vieillissement démographique, longévité et épargne. Le cas du Maroc
    [Ageing population, longevity and save. The case of Morocco]
    ," MPRA Paper 50649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Christine Fauvelle-Aymar, 2014. "The welfare state, migration, and voting rights," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 159(1), pages 105-120, April.
  11. Ghizlan Loumrhari, 2014. "Ageing, Longevity and Savings: The Case of Morocco," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 344-352.
  12. Vito Tanzi, 2004. "The Stability and Growth Pact: Its Role and Future," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 24(1-2), pages 57-69, Spring/Su.

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