Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries

Contents:

Author Info

  • António Afonso
  • João Tovar Jalles

Abstract

We assess the sustainability of public finances in OECD countries, over the period 1970-2010, using unit root and cointegration analysis, both country and panel based, controlling for endogenous breaks. Results notably show: lack of cointegration – absence of sustainability – between government revenues and expenditures for most countries (except for Austria, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, and UK); improvements of the primary balance after past worsening in debt ratios for Australia, Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands and the UK; Granger causality from government debt to the primary balance for 12 countries (suggesting the existence of Ricardian regimes). Overall, fiscal policy has been less sustainable for several countries, and panel data results corroborate the time-series findings. JEL Classification: C32, E62, H62, H63

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://pascal.iseg.utl.pt/~depeco/wp/wp292012.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon in its series Working Papers Department of Economics with number 2012/29.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Sep 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp292012

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page: https://aquila1.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC

Related research

Keywords: debt; primary balance; fiscal regimes; stationarity; breaks; causality; panel cointegration; FMOLS;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Afonso, António & Rault, Christophe, 2007. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Working Paper Series 0820, European Central Bank.
  2. Troy Davig, Eric Leeper, 2009. "Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions And Fiscal Stimulus," Caepr Working Papers, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington 2009-010, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  3. Pesaran, M.H., 2003. "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  4. Michael G. Arghyrou & Kul B Luintel, 2002. "Government Solvency: Revisiting some EMU Countries," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-24, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  5. Perron, Pierre & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2009. "Testing for Shifts in Trend With an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 369-396.
  6. Bravo, Ana Bela Santos & Silvestre, Antonio Luis, 2002. "Intertemporal sustainability of fiscal policies: some tests for European countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 517-528, September.
  7. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  8. António Afonso & João Jalles, 2011. "Appraising fiscal reaction functions," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 3320-3330.
  9. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Resolution of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 10/146, International Monetary Fund.
  10. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "A Historical Public Debt Database," IMF Working Papers 10/245, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-19, September.
  12. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2002. "Fiscal policy in Sweden: effects of EMU criteria convergence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 121-136, January.
  13. David Canning & Peter Pedroni, 2008. "Infrastructure, Long-Run Economic Growth And Causality Tests For Cointegrated Panels," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(5), pages 504-527, 09.
  14. Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2011. "Debt Sustainability and Financial Crises: Evidence from the GIIPS," CESifo Working Paper Series 3594, CESifo Group Munich.
  15. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker, 2010. "Inflation and the Fiscal Limit," NBER Working Papers 16495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Michael Bergman, 2001. "Testing government solvency and the No Ponzi Game condition," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 27-29.
  17. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I.
  18. Shaghil Ahmed & John H. Rogers, 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits: are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 494, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Henning Bohn, . "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits with Lump-Sum and with Income-Based Taxation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research 17-90, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  20. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
  21. Antonio Afonso, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability: the Unpleasant European Case," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004, Money Macro and Finance Research Group 57, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  22. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Díaz-Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2007. "Deficit sustainability and inflation in EMU: An analysis from the fiscal theory of the price level," Working Papers 07-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  23. Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1988. "Testing intertemporal budget constraints: theory and applications to U. S. federal budget and current account deficits," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 88-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  24. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2007. "What We Really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic," Working Papers Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon 2007/20, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  25. Antonio Afonso, 2010. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 105-109.
  26. Vogelsang, Timothy J & Perron, Pierre, 1998. "Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1073-1100, November.
  27. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
  28. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  29. Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105.
  30. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  31. António Afonso, 2005. "Ricardian Fiscal Regimes in the European Union," Working Papers Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon 2005/18, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  32. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October.
  33. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "A Longer-run Perspective on Fiscal Sustainability," Working Papers Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon 2011/17, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  34. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  35. Warne, Anders & Bruggeman, Annick & Donati, Paola, 2003. "Is the demand for euro area M3 stable?," Working Paper Series 0255, European Central Bank.
  36. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
  37. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  38. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  39. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
  40. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
  41. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  42. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  43. Narayana Kocherlakota & Christopher Phelan, 1999. "Explaining the fiscal theory of the price level," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 14-23.
  44. Hoover, K.D. & Sheffrin, S.M., 1990. "Causation, Spending And Taxes: Sand In The Sandbox Or Tax Collector For The Welfare State," Papers, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs 67, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
  45. Feve, Patrick & Henin, Pierre-Yves, 2000. " Assessing Effective Sustainability of Fiscal Policy within the G-7," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(2), pages 175-95, May.
  46. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
  47. Alexander W. Richter, 2013. "The Fiscal Limit and Non-Ricardian Consumers," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-19, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  48. Geweke, John & Meese, Richard & Dent, Warren, 1983. "Comparing alternative tests of causality in temporal systems : Analytic results and experimental evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 161-194, February.
  49. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August.
  50. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  51. Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
  52. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping & Chen, Pei-Fen, 2008. "Energy-income causality in OECD countries revisited: The key role of capital stock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2359-2373, September.
  53. Shin, Yongcheol, 1994. "A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 91-115, March.
  54. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
  55. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2013. "Modelling the Fiscal Reaction Functions of the GIPS Based on State-Varying Thresholds," CESifo Working Paper Series 4385, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. António Afonso, 2013. "Anatomy of a fiscal débacle: the case of Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon 2013/01, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp292012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vitor Escaria).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.