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International evidence on fiscal solvency: Is fiscal policy "responsible"?

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  • Mendoza, Enrique G.
  • Ostry, Jonathan D.

Abstract

We conduct a cross-country empirical analysis of fiscal solvency based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium conditions. The results show evidence of fiscal solvency, in the form of a robust positive conditional response of the primary balance to changes in public debt, in panels for emerging and industrial economies and in a combined panel. Emerging economies show a stronger response and hence converge to lower mean debt-output ratios, as observed in the data. The results are weaker for countries with debt ratios exceeding panel means and medians. Hence, we can separate countries where fiscal solvency holds from those where it remains in doubt.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
Issue (Month): 6 (September)
Pages: 1081-1093

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:55:y:2008:i:6:p:1081-1093

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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Keywords: Fiscal solvency Fiscal policy Debt sustainability Sovereign debt;

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References

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  1. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro & André Faria & Jonathan David Ostry & Julian di Giovanni & Martin Schindler & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco Terrones, 2008. "Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization," IMF Occasional Papers 264, International Monetary Fund.
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  5. Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan David Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A 'Fan-Chart' Approach," IMF Working Papers 06/67, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Barro, Robert J., 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Scholarly Articles 3451400, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Enrique G. Mendoza & P. Marcelo Oviedo, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Developing Countries: The Tale of the Tormented Insurer," NBER Working Papers 12586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. S. Rao Aiyagari & Albert Marcet & Thomas J. Sargent & Juha Seppala, 2002. "Optimal Taxation without State-Contingent Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(6), pages 1220-1254, December.
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  13. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Bennett Sutton & Luis Catão, 2002. "Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility," IMF Working Papers 02/149, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Piergallini, Alessandro & Postigliola, Michele, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Dynamics in Italy," MPRA Paper 28200, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fiess, Norbert & MacDonald, Ronald, 2011. "The global dimension to fiscal sustainability," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 137-150, June.
  3. Julia Darby & Jacques Melitz, 2011. "Joint Estimates of Automatic and Discretionary Fiscal Policy: the OECD 1981-2003," Working Papers 2011-14, CEPII research center.
  4. Betty Daniel & Christos Shiamptanis, 2008. "Fiscal Policy in the European Monetary Union," Discussion Papers 08-11, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  5. Pedro Maia & Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia, 2011. "A gerência recente do endividamento público brasileiro," Textos para discussão 595, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  6. Betty Daniel & Christos Shiamptanis, 2012. "Pushing the Limit? Fiscal Policy in the European Monetary Union," Working Papers 033, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.
  7. Raghbendra Jha, 2007. "Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: A Synoptic View," ASARC Working Papers 2007-01, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
  8. Abdul Abiad & John C Bluedorn & Jaime Guajardo & Petia Topalova, 2012. "The Rising Resilience of Emerging Market and Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 12/300, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Axel Schimmelpfennig & E. H. Gardner, 2008. "Lebanon-Weathering the Perfect Storms," IMF Working Papers 08/17, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Christos Shiamptanis, 2012. "Risk Assessment Under a Non-linear Fiscal Rule," Working Papers 038, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.
  11. António AFONSO & Priscilla TOFFANO, 2013. "Fiscal regimes in the EU," Center for Economic Studies - Discussion papers ces13.06, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën.
  12. Paolo Mauro & Rafael Romeu & Ariel J Binder & Asad Zaman, 2013. "A Modern History of Fiscal Prudence and Profligacy," IMF Working Papers 13/5, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Ante Žigman & Boris Cota, 2011. "The impact of fiscal policy on government bond spreads in emerging markets," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(4), pages 385-412.
  14. Darby, Julia & Melitz, Jacques, 2011. "Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy for the OECD," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-43, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).

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