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International evidence on fiscal solvency: Is fiscal policy "responsible"?

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Author Info
Mendoza, Enrique G.
Ostry, Jonathan D.

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Abstract

We conduct a cross-country empirical analysis of fiscal solvency based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium conditions. The results show evidence of fiscal solvency, in the form of a robust positive conditional response of the primary balance to changes in public debt, in panels for emerging and industrial economies and in a combined panel. Emerging economies show a stronger response and hence converge to lower mean debt-output ratios, as observed in the data. The results are weaker for countries with debt ratios exceeding panel means and medians. Hence, we can separate countries where fiscal solvency holds from those where it remains in doubt.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VBW-4STYV3B-1/2/4b910ddeaa1d29a2866816d78a4a376b
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
Issue (Month): 6 (September)
Pages: 1081-1093
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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:55:y:2008:i:6:p:1081-1093

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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Related research
Keywords: Fiscal solvency Fiscal policy Debt sustainability Sovereign debt;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Why is fiscal policy often procyclical?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2090, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Albert Marcet & Thomas J. Sargent & Juha Seppala, 1996. "Optimal Taxation without State-Contingent Debt," Economics Working Papers 170, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2001. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  5. Enrique G. Mendoza & P. Marcelo Oviedo, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Developing Countries: The Tale of the Tormented Insurer," NBER Working Papers 12586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Luis Catão & Bennett Sutton, 2002. "Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility," IMF Working Papers 02/149, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Henning Bohn, 2005. "The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  9. Barro, Robert J, 1986. " U.S. Deficits since World War I," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 88(1), pages 195-22.
  10. Bohn, Henning, 1995. "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 257-71, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Xavier Debrun & Oya Celasun & Jonathan David Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Working Papers 06/67, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. E. H. Gardner & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2008. "Lebanon-Weathering the Perfect Storms," IMF Working Papers 08/17, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Raghbendra Jha, 2007. "Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: A Synoptic View," ASARC Working Papers 2007-01, Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pascal Towbin, 2008. "Current Account Adjustment and Financial Integration," HEI Working Papers 11-2008, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies. [Downloadable!]
  4. Joseph P. Byrne & Norbert Fiess & Ronald MacDonald, 2008. "The Global Dimension to Fiscal Sustainability," Working Papers 2008_10, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
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