Governments in emerging markets often behave like a "tormented insurer," trying to use non-state-contingent debt instruments to avoid cuts in payments to private agents despite large fluctuations in public revenues. In the data, average public debt-GDP ratios decline as the variability of revenues increases, primary balances and current expenditures follow cyclical patterns sharply at odds with the countercyclical patterns of industrial countries, and the cyclical variability of public expenditures exceeds that of private expenditures by a wide margin. This paper proposes a model of a small open economy with incomplete markets that can rationalize this behavior. In the model a fiscal authority makes optimal expenditure and debt plans given shocks to output and revenues, and private agents make optimal consumption and asset accumulation plans. Quantitative analysis of the model calibrated to Mexico yields a negative relationship between average public debt and revenue variability similar to the one observed in the data. The model mimics Mexico's GDP correlations of government purchases and the primary balance. The ratio of public-to-private expenditures fluctuates widely and the implied welfare costs dwarf conventional estimates of negligible benefits of risk sharing and consumption smoothing.
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number
12586.
Length: Date of creation: Oct 2006 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12586
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Find related papers by JEL classification: E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997.
"Fiscal Policy in Latin America,"
NBER Chapters,
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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