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Average Tax Rate Cyclicality in OECD Countries: A Test of Three Fiscal Policy Theories

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  • Davide Furceri
  • Georgios Karras

Abstract

This article investigates the cyclical properties of the average effective tax rate in 26 OECD countries over 1965–2003 to test the validity of three theories of fiscal policy: (i) the standard Keynesian theory, which recommends that tax policy should be countercyclical; (ii) the Tax Smoothing hypothesis, which implies that changes in GDP should be uncorrelated with tax rates; and (iii) the positive theory of Battaglini and Coate (2008), which predicts the average tax rate should be negatively correlated with GDP. Our main finding is that the correlations of tax rates with cyclical GDP are generally quite small and statistically indistinguishable from zero. This finding is quite robust and is more consistent with the implications of the Tax Smoothing hypothesis than either the recommendations of the standard Keynesian model or predictions of the political economy theory of Battaglini and Coate.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Furceri & Georgios Karras, 2011. "Average Tax Rate Cyclicality in OECD Countries: A Test of Three Fiscal Policy Theories," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 77(4), pages 958-972, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:soecon:v:77:y:2011:i:4:p:958-972
    DOI: 10.4284/0038-4038-77.4.958
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    Cited by:

    1. Hongsheng Fang & Minyuan He & Dandan Dang & Jun Zhang, 2020. "Endogenous cyclical corporate tax burden in China: The role of tax quotas and growth targets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(12), pages 3314-3339, December.
    2. Marco Battaglini & Stephen Coate, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 17562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hongsheng Fang & Wen‐Quan Hu & Ruhua Shi & Xufei Zhang, 2023. "The Chinese‐style macroeconomic control: The role of state‐owned enterprises," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 702-725, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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