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New OECD Methods for Supply-side and Medium-term Assessments: A Capital Services Approach

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Author Info
Pierre-Olivier Beffy
Patrice Ollivaud
Pete Richardson
Franck Sédillot ()

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Abstract

The OECD makes frequent use of the supply-side framework and associated measures of factor productivity, productive potential and associated output gaps in the assessment of the short-term conjunctural situation, comparative economic performance and longer-term growth determinants. This paper describes a number of recent changes and improvements in the methods used in estimating potential output for OECD countries and the systems in which they are used, notably for the production of mediumterm economic scenarios. By and large, these reflect important changes and improvements in available statistical data sets, notably for measuring productive capital, as well as the development of more efficient model-based methods for making medium-term projections on a consistent international basis.

Révisions des méthods pour élaborer les potentiels de croissance et le scénario de moyen terms de l'OCDE
L’OCDE utilise de façon régulière son cadre analytique de dérivation du bloc d’offre et ses mesures dérivées de productivité globale des facteurs, de potentiel de croissance et d’écart de production dans son évaluation de la situation conjoncturelle, des performances économiques relatives des différents pays et des déterminants de la croissance de long terme. Ce papier décrit les changements et améliorations récents apportés, d’une part, à la méthode d’estimation des potentiels de croissance des pays de l’OCDE et, d’autre part, aux systèmes dans lesquels ces potentiels sont utilisés, notamment ceux assurant la production de scénario de moyen terme. Globalement, ces changements reflètent la meilleure qualité des statistiques disponibles, notamment celles relatives à la mesure du stock de capital productif, mais aussi la mise en place de méthodes plus efficaces pour produire un ensemble cohérent de projections internationales de moyen terme.

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Paper provided by OECD Economics Department in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 482.

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Date of creation: 06 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:482-en

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Related research
Keywords: OECD OCDE production function potential output capital services medium-term projections macroeconomic modelling modélisation macroéconomique fonction de production production potentielle stock de capital productif projections de moyen terme

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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  1. Dana Hájková & Jaromír Hurník, 2007. "Cobb-Douglas Production Function: The Case of a Converging Economy," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(9-10), pages 465-476, October. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kappler, Marcus, 2007. "Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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