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The Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the OECD

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Philip R. Lane

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Abstract

This paper addresses the topic of cyclicality in fiscal policy. In particular, we show that the level of cyclicality varies across spending categories and across OECD countries. In line with leading theories of fiscal cyclicality, we show that countries with volatile output and dispersed political power are the most likely to run procyclical fiscal policies. Wage government consumption is highlighted as the most important channel by which these variables affect fiscal cyclicality

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Paper provided by Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics in its series Trinity Economics Papers with number 20022.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:tcd:tcduee:20022

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Ernesto Talvi & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 7499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "Government size and automatic stabilizers: international and intranational evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1994. "Restraining Yourself: Fiscal Rules and Stabilization," CEPR Discussion Papers 1029, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. repec:fth:coluec:754 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Lane, Philip R & Tornell, Aaron, 1996. " Power, Growth, and the Voracity Effect," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 213-41, June.
  9. Robert E. Lucas Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1982. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in an Economy Without Capital," Discussion Papers 532, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Arreaza, A. & Sorensen, B.E. & Yosha, O., 1997. "Consumption Smoothing Through Fiscal Policy in OECD and EU Countries," Papers 37-97, Tel Aviv.
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  11. Gali, Jordi, 1994. "Government size and macroeconomic stability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 117-132, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Kraay, Aart & Ventura, Jaume, 1998. "Comparative advantage and the cross-section of business cycles," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1948, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Tornell, Aaron & Lane, Philip R., 1998. "Are windfalls a curse?: A non-representative agent model of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 83-112, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard Agénor & C. John McDermott, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries - Some Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
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  15. W. J. Henisz, 2000. "The Institutional Environment for Economic Growth," Economics and Politics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann & Roberto Perotti & Ernesto Talvi, 1996. "Managing Fiscal Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Volatility, Procyclicality, and Limited Creditworthiness," RES Working Papers 4032, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  17. Hercowitz, Z. & Strawczynski, M., 1999. "Cyclical Bias in Government Spending: Evidence from the OECD," Papers 6-99, Tel Aviv.
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