Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy
AbstractBased on a sample of 56 countries, we find that while fiscal policy in the G-7 countries appears to be broadly consistent with Barro's tax smoothing proposition, in developing countries government spending and taxes are highly procyclical (i.e., government spending rises and taxes fall during expansions, while the reverse is true in recessions). To explain this puzzle, we develop an optimal fiscal policy model in which running budget surpluses is costly because they create pressures to increase public spending. Given this distortion, a government that faces large (and perfectly anticipated) fluctuations in the tax base will find it optimal to run a procyclical fiscal policy. We argue that the differences in fiscal policy between the G-7 countries and developing countries can be traced back to the fact that the tax base is much more volatile in developing countries than in the G-7 countries.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7499.
Date of creation: Jan 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Talvi, Ernesto and Carlos A. Vegh. "Tax Base Variability And Procyclical Fiscal Policy In Developing Countries," Journal of Development Economics, 2005, v78(1,Oct), 156-190.
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
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