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Do Good Institutions Promote Counter-Cyclical Macroeconomic Policies?

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  • César Calderón
  • Roberto Duncan
  • Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel

Abstract

The literature has argued that developing countries are unable to adopt countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies due to financial imperfections and unfavorable political-economy conditions. Using a world sample of 115 industrial and developing countries for 1984-2008, we find that the level of institutional quality plays a key role in countries’ ability to implement counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies. The results show that countries with strong (weak) institutions adopt counter- (pro-) cyclical macroeconomic policies, reflected inextended monetary policy and fiscal policy rules. The threshold level of institutional quality at which monetary and fiscal policies are a-cyclical is found to be similar.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 419.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:419

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Keywords: Counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies; institutions; fiscal policy; monetary policy;

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  1. Huang, Haizhou & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2006. "Monetary policies for developing countries: The role of institutional quality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 239-252, September.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2004. "When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies," MPRA Paper 13883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Ernesto Stein & Ernesto Talvi & Alejandro Grisanti, 1999. "Institutional Arrangements and Fiscal Performance: The Latin American Experience," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 103-134 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
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  7. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Why Should Emerging Economies Give Up National Currencies?: A Case for "Institutions Substitution"," IDB Publications 6822, Inter-American Development Bank.
  9. Ilzetzki, Ethan, 2006. "Rent seeing distortions and fiscal procyclicality," MPRA Paper 8726, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Dec 2007.
  10. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Chadha, J.S. & Charles Nolan, 2002. "Optimal Simple Rules for the Conduct of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0224, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  12. Satyajit Chatterjee, 1999. "Real business cycles: a legacy of countercyclical policies?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jan, pages 17-27.
  13. Duncan, Roberto, 2014. "Institutional quality, the cyclicality of monetary policy and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 113-155.
  14. Yossi Yakhin, 2008. "Financial Integration And Cyclicality Of Monetary Policy In Small Open Economies," Working Papers 0811, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
  15. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Paolo Manasse, 2006. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 06/27, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
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