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Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach

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  • Oya Celasun

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Xavier Debrun

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Jonathan D. Ostry

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analy-sis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm for the path of public debt under realistic shock configurations, combining pure economic disturbances (to growth, interest rates, and exchange rates), the endogenous policy response to these, and the possible shocks arising from fiscal policy itself. The paper empha-sizes the role of fiscal behavior, as well as the structure of disturbances facing the economy and due to fiscal policy, in shaping the risk profile of public debt. Fan charts for debt are derived from the "marriage" between the pattern of shocks on the one hand and the endogenous response of fiscal policy on the other. Applications to Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey are used to illustrate the approach and its limitations. Copyright 2006, International Monetary Fund

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

Volume (Year): 53 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 3

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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:53:y:2006:i:3:p:3

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Cited by:
  1. Serhan Cevik & Katerina Teksoz, 2014. "Deep Roots of Fiscal Behavior," IMF Working Papers 14/45, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Peter S. Heller & Menachem Katz & Xavier Debrun & Theo Thomas & Taline Koranchelian & Isabell Adenauer, 2006. "Making Fiscal Space Happen!," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 7(3), pages 89-132, July.
  3. Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2007. "International Evidence on Fiscal Solvency: Is Fiscal Policy "Responsible"?," NBER Working Papers 12947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Oya Celasun & Joong Shik Kang, 2006. "On the Properties of Various Estimators for Fiscal Reaction Functions," IMF Working Papers 06/182, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2012. "The effects of financial crisis on fiscal positions," Working Papers 145, Bank of Greece.
  6. Ianchovichina, Elena & Liu, Lili & Nagarajan, Mohan, 2006. "Subnational fiscal sustainability analysis : what can we learn from Tamil Nadu ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3947, The World Bank.
  7. Carlos Caceres & Serhan Cevik & Ricardo Fenochietto & Borja Gracia, 2013. "The Day After Tomorrow," IMF Working Papers 13/79, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Barkbu, Bergljot & Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka, 2012. "Financial crises and the multilateral response: What the historical record shows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 422-435.
  9. Joachim Voth & Mauricio Drelichman, 2008. "Debt sustainability in historical perspective: The role of fiscal repression," Economics Working Papers 1184, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  10. Jha, Shikha & Quising, Pilipinas & Camingue, Shiela, 2009. "Macroeconomic Uncertainties, Oil Subsidies, and Fiscal Sustainability in Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 150, Asian Development Bank.
  11. Maximilien Kaffo Melou & Mariusz A. Sumlinski & Chris Geiregat, 2014. "An Application of the "Fan-Chart Approach" to Debt Sustainability in Post-HIPC Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 14/102, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan David Ostry, 2007. "International Evidenceon Fiscal Solvency," IMF Working Papers 07/56, International Monetary Fund.

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