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Some Cross-Country Evidence about Debt, Deficits and the Behaviour of Monetary and Fiscal Authorities

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Mélitz, Jacques

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Abstract

This paper assesses how monetary authorities behave and how they interact. Pooled data for the 15 members of the European Union except Luxembourg and five other OECD countries serves to answer these questions. Three basic conclusions emerge. First, fiscal policy responds to the ratio of public debt to output in a stabilizing manner. Second, coordinated macroeconomic policy exists: easy fiscal policy leads to tight monetary policy, and easy monetary policy to tight fiscal policy. Third, both monetary and fiscal policy respond to the cycle in a stabilizing manner, but automatic stabilization through fiscal policy is much weaker than generally perceived. Expansion raises tax receipts but also government expenditures. The destabilizing response on the expenditure side is also extremely marked.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1653.

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Date of creation: May 1997
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1653

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Related research
Keywords: Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy; Policy Coordination; Public Debt;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization

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  1. Ray Barrell & Ian Hurst & Álvaro Pina, 2002. "Fiscal Targets, Automatic Stabilisers and their Effects on Output," Working Papers 2002/05, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
  2. Philipp C. Rother, 2004. "Fiscal policy and inflation volatility," Working Paper Series 317, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Xavier Debrun & Oya Celasun & Jonathan David Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Working Papers 06/67, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2001. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions over the Cycle: Some Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2002_13, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Oct 2002. [Downloadable!]
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  5. V. Anton Muscatelli & Tiziano Ropele & Patrizio Tirelli, 2004. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions in a New Keynesian Model with Liquidity Constraints," Working Papers 83, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Maria Demertzis & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2004. "Central bank transparency in theory and practice," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 23, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Lars Calmfors & Giancarlo Corsetti & Seppo Honkapohja & John Kay & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Xavier Vives, 2006. "Chapter 1: The European Economy: Macroeconomic Outlook and Policy," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo Group Munich, vol. 0, pages 12-49, 03. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Galí, Jordi & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 3933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Maria Demertzis, . "When can an Independent Central Bank offer lower Inflation at no Cost? A Political Economy Analysis," EPRU Working Paper Series 00-01, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Xavier Debrun & Francesca Castellani, 2001. "Central Bank Independence and the Design of Fiscal Institutions," IMF Working Papers 01/205, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Patrizio Tirelli & V. Anton Muscatelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2004. "The interaction of fiscal and monetary policies: some evidence using structural econometric models'," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 103, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bernoth, Kerstin & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Lewis, John, 2008. "Did Fiscal Policy Makers Know What They Were Doing? Reassessing Fiscal Policy with Real Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Fabrizio Balassone & Maura Francese, 2004. "Cyclical asymmetry in fiscal policy, debt accumulation and the Treaty of Maastricht," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 531, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  14. Garima Vasishtha & Taimur Baig & Manmohan S. Kumar & Edda Zoli, 2006. "Fiscal and Monetary Nexus in Emerging Market Economies: How Does Debt Matter?," IMF Working Papers 06/184, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Roberto Tamborini, 2002. "One "monetary giant" with many "fiscal dwarfs": The efficiency of macroeconomic stabilization policies in the European Monetary Union," Department of Economics Working Papers 0204, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia. [Downloadable!]
  16. Demertzis, Maria & Hughes Hallett, Andrew, 1999. "An Independent Central Bank Faced With Elected Governments," CEPR Discussion Papers 2219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2003. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions: Empirical Evidence and Optimal Policy Using a Structural New Keynesian Model," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2004. "Can Fiscal Policy Help Macroeconomic Stabilisation? Evidence from a New Keynesian Model with Liquidity Constraints," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  19. Marco BUTI & Werner ROEGER & Jan IN'T VELD, 2001. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions under a Stability Pact," Economics Working Papers ECO2001/08, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  20. Anton Muscatelli & Patrzio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 1998. "Does Institutional Change Really Matter? Inflation Targets, Central Bank Reform And Interest Rate Policy In The Oecd Countries," Working Papers 1999_20, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Jul 1999. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Buti, Marco & Sapir, André, 2001. "EMU in the Early Years: Differences and Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 2832, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 1998. "Institutional Change, Inflation Targeting and the Stability of Interest Rate Reaction Functions," Working Papers 9815, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Aug 1998. [Downloadable!]
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