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Cyclical asymmetry in fiscal policy, debt accumulation and the Treaty of Maastricht

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Author Info
Fabrizio Balassone () (Banca d'Italia)
Maura Francese () (Banca d'Italia)

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Abstract

In this paper we present a stylised framework of fiscal policy determination that considers both structural targets and cyclical factors. Applying this framework to a sample of 16 OECD countries, we find evidence of significant asymmetry in the reaction of fiscal policy to positive and negative cyclical conditions, with budgetary balances deteriorating in contractions and not improving in expansions. This asymmetry appears to have contributed significantly to debt accumulation. We find no evidence that EU fiscal rules have reduced the ability of governments to conduct stabilisation policy between 1992 and 2000.

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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 531.

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Date of creation: Dec 2004
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_531_04

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Related research
Keywords: stabilization; fiscal policy; government debt; fiscal rules;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jordi GalÌ & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Zvi Hercowitz & Michel Strawczynski, 2004. "Cyclical Ratcheting in Government Spending: Evidence from the OECD," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 353-361, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Guiso, Luigi & Parigi, Giuseppe, 1996. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 1497, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Adriana Arreaza & Bent E. Sgrensen & Oved Yosha, 1999. "Consumption Smoothing through Fiscal Policy in OECD and EU Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 59-80 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  6. Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1998. "Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1836, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Buti, Marco & Franco, Daniele & Ongena, Hedwig, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and Flexibility in EMU: The Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 81-97, Autumn.
  8. Mélitz, Jacques, 1997. "Some Cross-Country Evidence about Debt, Deficits and the Behaviour of Monetary and Fiscal Authorities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1653, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Lorenzo Forni & Sandro Momigliano, 2004. "Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 540, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Philippine Cour-Thimann & Pablo Hernandez Cos & Matthias F. Mohr & Mika Tujula & Carine Bouthevillain & Geert Langenus & Sandro Momigliano & Gerrit Van Den Dool, 2001. "Cyclically adjusted budget balances: an alternative approach," Working Paper Series 077, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Martin Larch & Matteo Salto, 2005. "Fiscal rules, inertia and discretionary fiscal policy," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(10), pages 1135-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ugo Panizza & Dany Jaimovich, 2007. "Procyclicality or Reverse Causality?," RES Working Papers 4508, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Paolo Manasse, 2006. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy: Shocks, Rules, and Institutions - A View From MARS," IMF Working Papers 06/27, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fabiana Rocha & Ana Carolina Giuberti, 2006. "Assimetria Cíclica Na Política Fiscal Dos Estados Brasileiros," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 52, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fabrizio Balassone & Maura Francese & Stefania Zotteri, 2008. "Cyclical asymmetry in fiscal variables," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 671, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kerstin Bernoth & Andrew Hughes Hallet & John Lewis, 2008. "Did fiscal policy makers know what they were doing? Reassessing fiscal policy with real-time data," DNB Working Papers 169, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Anthony Annett, 2007. "Toward a Robust Fiscal Framework for Iceland: Motivation and Practical Suggestions," IMF Working Papers 07/235, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Forni, Lorenzo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2004. "Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data," MPRA Paper 4315, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Anthony Annett, 2006. "Enforcement and the Stability and Growth Pact: How Fiscal Policy Did and Did Not Change Under Europe's Fiscal Framework," IMF Working Papers 06/116, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Xavier Debrun & Oya Celasun & Jonathan David Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Working Papers 06/67, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ugo Panizza & Dany Jaimovich, 2007. "Prociclicalidad o Causalidad Reversa?," RES Working Papers 4509, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Laura dos Reis & Paolo Manasse & Ugo Panizza, 2007. "Targeting the Structural Balance," RES Working Papers 4507, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  12. Christopher Faircloth & Benedict J. Clements & Marijn Verhoeven, 2007. "Public Expenditure in Latin America: Trends and Key Policy Issues," IMF Working Papers 07/21, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Roberto Golinelli & Sandro Momigliano, 2006. "Real-time determinants of fiscal policies in the euro area: Fiscal rules, cyclical conditions and elections," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 609, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  14. Fabiana Rocha, 2007. "Política Fiscal Através Do Ciclo E Operação Dos Estabilizadores Fiscais," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 011, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
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