Cyclical asymmetry in fiscal variables
AbstractIn a stylised framework of fiscal policy determination that considers both structural targets and cyclical factors, we find significant cyclical asymmetry in the behaviour of fiscal variables in a sample of fourteen EU countries from 1970 to 2004, with budgetary balances (both overall and primary) deteriorating in contractions but not improving correspondingly in expansions. Analysis of budget components reveals that the asymmetry is due to expenditure, in particular transfers in cash. We find no evidence that the fiscal rules introduced in 1992 with the Treaty of Maastricht affected the cyclical behaviour of the variables examined. Numerical simulations show that cyclical asymmetry inflated average deficit levels, contributing significantly to the accumulation of debt.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 671.
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
fiscal stabilisation; government expenditure; government debt; fiscal rules;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-07-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-07-30 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2008-07-30 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2008-07-30 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004.
"When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies,"
NBER Working Papers
10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2004. "When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies," MPRA Paper 13883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Fabrizio Balassone & Daniele Franco & Stefania Zotteri, 2007. "Rainy day funds: can they make a difference in Europe," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 11, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Golinelli, Roberto & Momigliano, Sandro, 2006. "Real-time determinants of fiscal policies in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 943-964, December.
- Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, .
"Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe,"
142, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Artis, M. & Marcellino, M., 1998. "Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe," Economics Working Papers eco98/2, European University Institute.
- Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1998. "Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1836, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- André Sapir & Marco Buti, 1998. "Economic policy in EMU," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8078, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Zvi Hercowitz & Michel Strawczynski, 2004. "Cyclical Ratcheting in Government Spending: Evidence from the OECD," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 353-361, February.
- Buti, Marco & Franco, Daniele & Ongena, Hedwig, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and Flexibility in EMU: The Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 81-97, Autumn.
- Bouthevillain, Carine & Cour-Thimann, Philippine & van de Dool, Gerrit & Hernández de Cos, Pablo & Langenus, Geert & Mohr, Matthias & Momigliano, Sandro & Tujula, Mika, 2001.
"Cyclically adjusted budget balances: an alternative approach,"
Working Paper Series
0077, European Central Bank.
- Bouthevillain, C. & Van Den Dool, G. & Langenus, G. & Mohr, M. & Momigliano, S. & Tujula, M. & De Cos, P.H., 2001. "Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balances: an Alternative Approach," Papers 77, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
- Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game," Scholarly Articles 4552531, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Stephan Danninger & Annette Kyobe & M. Cangiano, 2005. "The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience from Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 05/2, International Monetary Fund.
- Fabrizio Balassone & Maura Francese, 2004. "Cyclical asymmetry in fiscal policy, debt accumulation and the Treaty of Maastricht," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 531, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- António Afonso & Peter Claeys & Ricardo Sousa, 2011.
"Fiscal regime shifts in Portugal,"
Portuguese Economic Journal,
Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 83-108, August.
- António Afonso & Peter Claeys & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "Fiscal Regime Shifts in Portugal," NIPE Working Papers 25/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- António Afonso & Peter Claeys & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "Fiscal Regime Shifts in Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2009/39, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- António Afonso & Peter Claeys & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "Fiscal Regime Shifts in Portugal," IREA Working Papers 200921, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2009.
- Julia Darby & Jacques Melitz, 2011.
"Joint Estimates of Automatic and Discretionary Fiscal Policy: the OECD 1981-2003,"
2011-14, CEPII research center.
- Darby, Julia & Mélitz, Jacques, 2011. "Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy: the OECD 1981-2003," CEPR Discussion Papers 8342, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Julia Darby & Jacques Melitz, 2012. "Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy: the OECD 1981-2003," Heriot-Watt University Economics Discussion Papers 1210, Department of Economics, School of Management and Languages, Heriot Watt University.
- Jacques Melitz & Julia Darby, 2011. "Joint Estimates of Automatic and Discretionary Fiscal Policy: The OECD 1981-2003," Working Papers 2011-11, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Sanjeev Gupta & Alejandro Hajdenberg & Javier Arze del Granado, 2010. "Is Social Spending Procyclical?," IMF Working Papers 10/234, International Monetary Fund.
- Larch, Martin, 2010. "Fiscal performance and income inequality: Are unequal societies more deficit-prone? Some cross-country evidence," MPRA Paper 23496, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Arze del Granado, Javier & Gupta, Sanjeev & Hajdenberg, Alejandro, 2013. "Is Social Spending Procyclical? Evidence for Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 16-27.
- Julia Darby & Jacques Melitz, 2011.
"Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy for the OECD,"
1122, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Darby, Julia & Melitz, Jacques, 2011. "Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy for the OECD," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-43, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.