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Prociclicalidad o Causalidad Reversa?

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Author Info
Ugo Panizza
Dany Jaimovich

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Abstract

Existe una vasta literatura que muestra que la política fiscal en países industrializados es acíclica o contracíclica y procíclica en países emergentes. Mucha de esta literatura se basa en regresiones MCO que se enfocan en la correlación entre una variable fiscal (usualmente el balance presupuestario o crecimiento del gasto) ya sea crecimiento del PIB o alguna medida de la brecha del producto. Este paper argumenta que tal metodología no permite la identificación del efecto del ciclo real en la política fiscal y por lo tanto no se puede usar para estimar funciones de reacción de política. El paper propone un nuevo instrumento para el crecimiento del PIB y muestra que una vez que éste esté debidamente instrumentado, la prociclicidad tiende a desaparecer.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series RES Working Papers with number 4509.

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Date of creation: Mar 2007
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4509

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jordi GalÌ & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Paolo Manasse, 2006. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy: Shocks, Rules, and Institutions - A View From MARS," IMF Working Papers 06/27, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Zvi Hercowitz & Michel Strawczynski, 2004. "Cyclical Ratcheting in Government Spending: Evidence from the OECD," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 353-361, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Fabrizio Balassone & Maura Francese, 2004. "Cyclical asymmetry in fiscal policy, debt accumulation and the Treaty of Maastricht," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 531, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
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  7. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend," Working Papers 04-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2004. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Depth," NBER Working Papers 10532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Enrique Alberola & José M. Montero, 2006. "Debt sustainability and procyclical fical policies in Latin America," Banco de España Working Papers 0611, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bernardin Akitoby & Benedict J. Clements & Sanjeev Gupta & Gabriela Inchauste, 2004. "The Cyclical and Long-Term Behavior of Government Expenditures in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 04/202, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. César Calderón & Roberto Duncan & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "Institutions and Cyclical Properties of Macroeconomic Policies," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 285, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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