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Debt sustainability and procyclical fical policies in Latin America

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  • Enrique Alberola

    ()
    (Banco de España)

  • José M. Montero

    ()
    (Banco de España)

Abstract

The computation of structural primary balances for the nine main Latin American countries and their comparison of their changes with their cyclical position during the period 1981 2004 confirms that fiscal policy is procyclical in the region. From this evidence, the paper shows strong evidence that the fiscal behaviour is closely linked to the financial vulnerability position of the economies and in particular to the perception on the sustainability of debt. The current threshold balance, defined as the primary balance which would render the debt stable under the existing economic and financial conditions, is used as our gauge for measuring debt sustainability at each point in time. The empirical analysis reveals that the fiscal stance tightens when the debt sustainability perceptions worsen, and that this effect is stronger the less sustainable debt is perceived. The results are robust to different specifications and estimation methods.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0611.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: May 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0611

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Keywords: procyclical fiscal policy; debt sustainability;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alberola, Enrique & Molina, Luis & Navia, Daniel, 2007. "Say you fix, enjoy and relax. The deleterious effect of peg announcements on fiscal discipline in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 328-338, December.
  2. Sergey Vlasov, 2011. "Russian Fiscal Framework Past, Present and Future.Do we Need a Change?," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(64), pages 35-81, October -.
  3. Ugo Panizza & Dany Jaimovich, 2007. "Procyclicality or Reverse Causality?," Research Department Publications 4508, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  4. Irene Yackovlev & Victor Duarte Lledo & Lucie Gadenne, 2009. "Cyclical Patterns of Government Expenditures in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 09/274, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Mauricio Villafuerte & Pablo López-Murphy & Rolando Ossowski, 2011. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resources Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean ," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 609, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Sophia Gollwitzer & Eteri Kvintradze & Tej Prakash & Luis-Felipe Zanna & Era Dabla-Norris & Richard Allen & Irene Yackovlev & Victor Duarte Lledo, 2010. "Budget Institutions and Fiscal Performance in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/80, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Juan Carlos Berganza, 2011. "Fiscal rules in Latin America: a survey," Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers 1108, Banco de Espa�a.
  8. Juliana Dutra Araujo, 2009. "Fiscal Cycles in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 09/158, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Serhan Cevik & Katerina Teksoz, 2014. "Deep Roots of Fiscal Behavior," IMF Working Papers 14/45, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Ignacio Lozano & Jorge Toro, 2007. "Fiscal Policy Throughout the Cycle: The Colombian Experience," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002730, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  11. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Ivanna Vladkova Hollar, 2008. "Fiscal Positions in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 08/137, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Ugo Panizza & Dany Jaimovich, 2007. "Prociclicalidad o Causalidad Reversa?," Research Department Publications 4509, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.

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