Estimation of the business cycle: A modified Hodrick-Prescott filter
AbstractHodrick-Prescott (HP) filtering of (most often, seasonally adjusted) quarterly series is analysed. Some of the criticism to the filter are adressed. It is seen that, while filtering strongly affects autocorrelations, it has little effect on crosscorrelations. It is argued that the criticism that HP filtering induces a spurious cycle in the series is unwarranted. The filter, however, presents two serious drawbacks: First, poor performance at the end periods, due to the size of the revisions in preliminary estimators, and, second, the amount of noise in the cyclical signal, which seriously disturbs its interpretation. We show how the addition of two model-based features (in particular, applying the filter to the series extended with proper ARIMA forecasts and backcasts, and using as input to the filter the trend-cycle component instead of the seasonally adjusted series) can considerably improve the filter performance. Throughout the discussion, we use a computationally and analytically convenient alternative derivation of the HP filter, and illustrate the results with an example consisting of 4 Spanish economic indicators.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Spanish Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 1 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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Other versions of this item:
- Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 1999. "Estimation of the Business Cycle: a Modified Hodrick-Prescott Filter," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 9912, Banco de Espa�a.
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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