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Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances

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  • Claude Giorno
  • Pete Richardson
  • Deborah Roseveare
  • Paul van den Noord

Abstract

This paper reviews the methods used for estimating potential output in OECD countries and the use of the resulting output gaps for the calculation of structural budget balances. The "split time trend" method for estimating trend output that was previously used for calculating structural budget balances is compared with two alternative methods, smoothing real GDP using a Hodrick Prescott filter and estimating potential output using a production function approach. It is concluded that the production function approach for estimating potential output provides the best method for estimating output gaps and for calculating structural budget balances, with the results obtained by smoothing GDP providing a cross check. New tax and expenditure elasticities, along with the potential output gaps, are used to derive structural budget balances ... Estimation de la production potentielle, des écarts du production et les soldes budgétaires structurels Ce document passe en revue les différentes méthodes utilisées pour estimer la production potentielle dans les pays de l’OCDE et l’utilisation des écarts de production qui a dêcoulent pour le calcul des soldes budgétaires structurels. La méthode utilisant la segmentation de la tendance temporelle pour estimer la production potentielle et qui servait précédemment á calculer les soldes budgétaires structurels est comparée à deux autres méthodes : le lissage du PIB réel à l’aide d’un filtre Hodrick-Prescott et l’estimation de la production potentielle sur la base d’une fonction de production. Il en ressort que l’estimation de la production potentielle par l’approche fonction de production a s’avère être la meilleure méthode pour estimer les écarts de production et pour calculer les soldes budgétaires structurels, les résultats obtenus par lissage du PIB étant utilisés comme moyens de vérification. Pour estimer les soldes budgétaires structurels, on utilise de nouvelles élasticités des ...

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/533876774515
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 152.

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Date of creation: 1995
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:152-en

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