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Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe

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Author Info
Artis, Michael J
Marcellino, Massimiliano

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Abstract

This paper analyses two features of concern to policy-makers in the countries of the prospective European Monetary Union: the solvency of their government’s finances; and the accuracy of fiscal forecasts. Extending the existing methodology of solvency tests, the paper finds that, with few exceptions, EU governments are insolvent, albeit debt/GDP ratios show signs of stabilizing. The accuracy of official short-term fiscal forecasts (those of the OECD) is analysed, using conventional techniques, and found to be reassuring.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1836.

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Date of creation: Mar 1998
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1836

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Related research
Keywords: Deficits; Fiscal Policy; Forecast Accuracy; Maasticht treaty; Solvency; stability and growth pact;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
D99 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Other
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Uctum, Merih & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Debt and Deficit Ceilings, and Sustainability of Fiscal Policies: An Intertemporal Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1612, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 351-374, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1989. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Michael J. Artis, 1996. "How Accurate are the IMF's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook," IMF Working Papers 96/89, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Wilcox, David W, 1989. "The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 291-306, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2001. "Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages S20-S36.
    Other versions:
  11. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
  12. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-23, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1990. "On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 120-27, June.
  14. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Podivinsky, Jan M & King, Maxwell L, 2000. "The Exact Power Envelope of Tests for a Unit Root," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0026, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. [Downloadable!]
  16. Schwert, G William, 1989. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-59, April.
    Other versions:
  17. Laurence Ball & Douglas W. Elmendorf & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "The Deficit Gamble," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1710, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    Other versions:
  18. Francesco P. Mongelli, 1996. "The Effects of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on National Fiscal Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 96/72, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Smith, Gregor W & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Persistent Deficits and the Market Value of Government Debt," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 31-44, Jan.-Marc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Buiter, Willem H & Kletzer, Kenneth, 1990. "Reflections on the Fiscal Implications of a Common Currency," CEPR Discussion Papers 418, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Perotti, Roberto & Strauch, Rolf & von Hagen, Jürgen, 1997. "Sustainability of Public Finances," CEPR Discussion Papers 1781, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Artis, Michael J & Winkler, Bernhard, 1997. "The Stability Pact: Safeguarding the Credibility of the European Central Bank," CEPR Discussion Papers 1688, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Tanaka, Katsuto, 1990. "Testing for a Moving Average Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(04), pages 433-444, December. [Downloadable!]
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  27. Buiter, W.H. & Corsetti, G. & Roubini, N., 1992. "Excessive Deficits: Sense and Nonsence in the Treaty of Maastricht," Papers 674, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    Other versions:
  28. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2007. "Fiscal forecasting - lessons from the literature and challenges," Working Paper Series 843, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Thomas D. Willett, . "A Political Economy Analysis of the Maastricht and Stability Pact Fiscal Criteria," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 1999-33, Claremont Colleges. [Downloadable!]
  3. Artis, Michael J & Buti, Marco, 2000. ""Close to Balance or in Surplus": A Policy Maker's Guide to the Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," CEPR Discussion Papers 2515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Fabrizio Balassone & Maura Francese, 2004. "Cyclical asymmetry in fiscal policy, debt accumulation and the Treaty of Maastricht," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 531, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Antonio Afonso, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability: the Unpleasant European Case," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 57, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Alberto Bagnai, 2004. "Keynesian And Neoclassical Fiscal Sustainability Indicators, With Applications To Emu Member Countries," Public Economics 0411005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Menzie Chinn & Jeffrey Frankel, 2003. "The Euro Area and World Interest Rates," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series 1031, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Fève, Patrick & Hénin, Pierre-Yves, 1998. "Assessing effective sustainability of fiscal policy within the G-7," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9815, CEPREMAP. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Michael J. Artis & Marco Buti, 2000. "Close to Balance or in Surplus. A Policy Maker’s Guide to the Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 28, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS). [Downloadable!]
  10. Kinnunen, Helvi & Kuoppamäki, Pasi, 1998. "Sustainability of Public Finances in Finland and the Four Largest Euro-area Economies," Research Discussion Papers 25/1998, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  11. Hüseyin Kalyoncu, 2005. "Fiscal policy sustainability: test of intertemporal borrowing constraints," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(15), pages 957-962, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2002. "Is the US Fiscal Deficit Sustainable? A Fractionally Integrated and Cointegrated Approach," Faculty Working Papers 03/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
  13. António Afonso, 2000. "Fiscal policy sustainability: some unpleasant European evidence," Working Papers 2000/12, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
  14. Peter Claeys, 2007. "Sustainability of EU fiscal policies, a panel test," IREA Working Papers 200702, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
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