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Real-time determinants of fiscal policies in the euro area: Fiscal rules, cyclical conditions and elections

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Author Info
Roberto Golinelli () (University of Bologna, Department of Economics)
Sandro Momigliano () (Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department)

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Abstract

We examine the impact of four factors on the fiscal policies of the euro-area countries over the last two decades: the state of public finances, the European fiscal rules, cyclical conditions and general elections. We rely on information actually available to policy-makers at the time of budgeting in constructing our explanatory variables. Our estimates indicate that policies have reacted to the state of public finances in a stabilizing manner. The European rules have significantly affected the behaviour of countries with excessive deficits. Apart from these cases, the rules appear to have reaffirmed existing preferences. We find a relatively large symmetrical counter-cyclical reaction of fiscal policy and strong evidence of a political budget cycle. The electoral manipulation of fiscal policy, however, occurs only if the macroeconomic context is favourable.

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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 609.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_609_06

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Related research
Keywords: fiscal policy; real-time information; euro-area countries; stabilisation policies; fiscal rules; political budget cycle;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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  1. Candelon, Bertrand & Muysken, Joan & Vermeulen, Robert, 2007. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe: An Update," Research Memoranda 050, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Kerstin Bernoth & Andrew Hughes Hallet & John Lewis, 2008. "Did fiscal policy makers know what they were doing? Reassessing fiscal policy with real-time data," DNB Working Papers 169, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Mario Quagliariello, 2007. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and banks' lending decisions: The case of Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 615, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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