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Fiscal Policy Rules for Stabilisation and Growth: A Simulation Analysis of Deficit and Expenditure Targets in a Monetary Union

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  • Tilman Brück
  • Rudolf Zwiener

Abstract

We analyse the effectiveness of fiscal policy rules for business cycle stabilisation in a monetary union using a quarterly macro-econometric model of Germany. The simulations compare a deficit target and an expenditure target under a range of supply, demand and fiscal shocks. Their effects are evaluated by their impact on prices and output. The analysis demonstrates that in general the deficit target of the stability pact leads to less stabilisation than an expenditure target. The results suggest that the deficit rule of the stability pact should be replaced with an expenditure rule augmented by medium-term debt targets.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.41892.de/dp427.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 427.

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Length: 23 p.
Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp427

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Keywords: Fiscal policy; International policy coordination; Simulation;

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References

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  1. Mountford, Andrew & Uhlig, Harald, 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Marín, José M., 2002. "Sustainability of public finances and automatic stabilisation under a rule of budgetary discipline," Working Paper Series 0193, European Central Bank.
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  4. Roel Beetsma & Xavier Debrun & Frank Klaassen, 2001. "Is Fiscal Policy Coordination in EMU Desirable?," CESifo Working Paper Series 599, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Laura Piscitelli, 2002. "Does One Size Fit All? A currency union with asymmetric transmissions and a stability pact," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 71-96.
  6. Michael J. Artis & Marco Buti, 2000. "Close to Balance or in Surplus. A Policy Maker’s Guide to the Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 28, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  7. Buti, M. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Franco, D., 2003. "Revisiting the stability and growth pact: Grand design or internal adjustment?," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-152958, Tilburg University.
  8. Gottfried Haber, 2001. "Simulation Analysis of Public Debt and Fiscal Deficit in Austria – Optimal Economic Policies for the Past and the Future," Empirica, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 69-95, March.
  9. Donatella Gatti, 2002. "Co-ordinating fiscal authorities in the euro-zone: a key role for the ECB," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 54(1), pages 56-71, January.
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  11. Tilman Brück & Andreas Stephan, 2005. "Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with Their Budget Deficit Forecasts?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 508, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  12. Dixit, Avinash & Lambertini, Luisa, 2001. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and commitment versus discretion in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 977-987, May.
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  16. Belke, Ansgar, 2002. "Towards a Balanced Policy Mix under EMU: Co-ordination of Macroeconomic Policies and ‘Economic Government’?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 17, pages 21-53.
  17. Christopher Allsopp, 2002. "The Future of Macroeconomic Policy in the European Union," Discussion Papers 07, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  18. John B. Taylor, 2000. "Reassessing Discretionary Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 21-36, Summer.
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  20. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Peter Mooslechner, 1999. "Challenges for Economic Policy Coordination within European Monetary Union," Empirica, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 169-170, September.
  21. Tilman Brück & Andreas Cors & Klaus F. Zimmermann & Rudolf Zwiener, 2002. "Stability Criteria and Convergence: The Role of the System of National Accounts for Fiscal Policy in Europe," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 318, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  22. Uhlig, Harald, 2002. "One Money, but Many Fiscal Policies in Europe: What Are the Consequences?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3296, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Sanchez-Fuentes, A. Jesus & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2011. "Towards expenditure rules and fiscal sanity in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 597-617, July.
  2. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "Fiscal deficits under financial pressure and insolvency: Evidence for Italy, Greece and Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 730-749.
  3. Escario, Regina & Gadea, María Dolores & Sabaté, Marcela, 2012. "Multicointegration, seigniorage and fiscal sustainability. Spain 1857–2000," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 270-283.
  4. Luigi Bonatti & Annalisa Cristini, 2007. "Breaking the stability pact: was it predictable?," Department of Economics Working Papers 0714, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  5. Menguy, Séverine, 2008. "A dynamic rule applied to the threshold imposed on the European budgetary deficits," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1093-1105.
  6. Lewis, Kenneth A. & Seidman, Laurence S., 2008. "Overcoming the zero interest-rate bound: A quantitative prescription," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 751-760.
  7. Ahmad, Nazneen & Xiao, Wei, 2013. "End of double taxation: Is the policy better when announced?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 928-942.
  8. Golinelli, Roberto & Momigliano, Sandro, 2006. "Real-time determinants of fiscal policies in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 943-964, December.
  9. Roberto Golinelli & Sandro Momigliano, 2006. "Real-time determinants of fiscal policies in the euro area: Fiscal rules, cyclical conditions and elections," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 609, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  10. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Fabian Lindner & Rudolf Zwiener, 2013. "Nur das Angebot zählt?," IMK Report 87-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  11. Ferré, Montserrat, 2008. "Fiscal policy coordination in the EMU," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 221-235.
  12. Onorante, Luca & Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J. & Signorini, Sara, 2010. "The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 98-119, January.
  13. Paolo Biraschi, . "Searching for the optimal EMU fiscal rule:an ex-post analysis of the SGP reform proposals," Working Papers wp2008-7, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
  14. Aurélien Eyquem, 2007. "Fiscal Policy in an Estimated Model of the European Monetary Union," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 200705, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
  15. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Fabian Lindner & Rudolf Zwiener, 2013. "Is the supply side all that counts?," IMK Report 87e-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  16. Ferré Carracedo, Montserrat, 2011. "The effects of uncertainty about countries' compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact," Working Papers 2072/169686, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.

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