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Fiscal Policy Rules for Stabilisation and Growth: A Simulation Analysis of Deficit and Expenditure Targets in a Monetary Union

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Author Info
Tilman Brück
Rudolf Zwiener

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Abstract

We analyse the effectiveness of fiscal policy rules for business cycle stabilisation in a monetary union using a quarterly macro-econometric model of Germany. The simulations compare a deficit target and an expenditure target under a range of supply, demand and fiscal shocks. Their effects are evaluated by their impact on prices and output. The analysis demonstrates that in general the deficit target of the stability pact leads to less stabilisation than an expenditure target. The results suggest that the deficit rule of the stability pact should be replaced with an expenditure rule augmented by medium-term debt targets.

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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 427.

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Length: 23 p.
Date of creation: 2004
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Publication status: Published in: Journal of Policy Modeling 28(2006) 4 ; 357-369
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp427

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Related research
Keywords: Fiscal policy; International policy coordination; Simulation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Uhlig, Harald, 2002. "One Money, but Many Fiscal Policies in Europe: What Are the Consequences?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3296, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Artis, Michael J & Buti, Marco, 2000. ""Close to Balance or in Surplus": A Policy Maker's Guide to the Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," CEPR Discussion Papers 2515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Dixit, Avinash & Lambertini, Luisa, 2001. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and commitment versus discretion in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 977-987, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mountford, A. & Uhlig, H., 2002. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Discussion Paper 31, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Christopher Allsopp, 2002. "The Future of Macroeconomic Policy in the European Union," Discussion Papers 07, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  6. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Peter Mooslechner, 1999. "Challenges for Economic Policy Coordination within European Monetary Union," Empirica, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 169-170, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Beetsma, Roel & Debrun, Xavier & Klaassen, Frank, 2001. "Is Fiscal Policy Coordination in EMU Desirable?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Tilman Brück & Andreas Cors & Klaus F. Zimmermann & Rudolf Zwiener, 2002. "Stability Criteria and Convergence: The Role of the System of National Accounts for Fiscal Policy in Europe," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 318, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  9. Alan J. Auerbach & Daniel Feenberg, 2000. "The Significance of Federal Taxes as Automatic Stabilizers," NBER Working Papers 7662, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Jose Marin, 2002. "Sustainability of public finances and automatic stabilisation under a rule of budgetary discipline," Working Paper Series 193, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Donatella Gatti, 2002. "Co-ordinating fiscal authorities in the euro-zone: a key role for the ECB," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 54(1), pages 56-71, January.
  12. John B. Taylor, 2000. "Reassessing Discretionary Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 21-36, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Heijdra, Ben J. & Meijdam, Lex, 2002. "Public investment and intergenerational distribution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 707-735, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Engwerda, Jacob C. & van Aarle, Bas & Plasmans, Joseph E. J., 2002. "Cooperative and non-cooperative fiscal stabilization policies in the EMU," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 451-481, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Fabrizio Balassone & Daniele Franco, 2000. "Public investment, the Stability Pact and the ‘golden rule’," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 207-229, June. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Roberto Golinelli & Sandro Momigliano, 2006. "Real-time determinants of fiscal policies in the euro area: Fiscal rules, cyclical conditions and elections," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 609, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. Aurélien Eyquem (CREM - CNRS), 2007. "Fiscal Policy in an Estimated Model of the European Monetary Union," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 200705, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS. [Downloadable!]
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