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Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with Their Budget Deficit Forecasts?

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Author Info
Tilman Brück
Andreas Stephan

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Abstract

We estimate the political economy determinants of budget deficit forecast errors. Since the adoption of the Stability Pact, Eurozone governments have manipulated forecasts before elections. The political orientation and the institutional design of governments also affects the quality of forecasts.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/43495/dp508.pdf
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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 508.

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Length: 9 p.
Date of creation: 2005
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Publication status: Published in: Kyklos 59 (2006), 1, 3-15
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp508

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Related research
Keywords: Fiscal policy Budget deficit Forecast error Electoral cycles

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Beetsma, Roel & Jensen, Henrik, 2003. "Contingent deficit sanctions and moral hazard with a stability pact," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 187-208, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Rolf Strauch & Mark Hallerberg & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "Budgetary forecasts in Europe - the track record of stability and convergence programmes," Working Paper Series 307, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Andrikopoulos, Andreas & Loizides, Ioannis & Prodromidis, Kyprianos, 2004. "Fiscal policy and political business cycles in the EU," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 125-152, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2007. "Fiscal forecasting - lessons from the literature and challenges," Working Paper Series 843, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Álvaro Pina & Nuno Venes, 2007. "The Political Economy of EDP Fiscal Forecasts: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers 2007/23, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bruno S. Frey, 2006. "Evaluitis – Eine Neue Krankheit," IEW - Working Papers iewwp293, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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