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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to assess whether politicians manipulate the timing of tax rate changes in a strategic way to maximize reelection prospects. To do so, we exploit the German local business tax as a testing ground which is set autonomously by German municipalities. As election dates vary across local councils, the data allows us to disentangle effects related to the timing of elections from common trends. Using a rich panel data-set for German municipalities, we assess the impact of elections on local business tax choices. The findings support the notion of a political cycle in tax setting behavior as the growth rate of the local business tax is significantly reduced in the election year and the year prior to the election, while it jumps up in the year after the election. This pattern turns out to be robust against a number of sensitivity checks. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID) in its series FZID Discussion Papers with number 43-2012.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:fziddp:432012

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Web page: http://www.fzid.uni-hohenheim.de/
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Related research

Keywords: local business tax choice; political economy; election cycle;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

• H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
• H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
• D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

• NEP-ALL-2012-02-20 (All new papers)
• NEP-PBE-2012-02-20 (Public Economics)
• NEP-POL-2012-02-20 (Positive Political Economics)

References

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1. Cameron, A. Colin & Gelbach, Jonah B. & Miller, Douglas L., 2011. "Robust Inference With Multiway Clustering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 238-249.
   
   • A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller & Doug Miller, 2009. "Robust Inference with Multi-way Clustering," Working Papers 98, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
   • A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2006. "Robust Inference with Multi-way Clustering," NBER Technical Working Papers 0327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   • Miller, Douglas & Cameron, A. Colin & Gelbach, Jonah, 2009. "Robust Inference with Multi-way Clustering," Working Papers 09-9, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics.
2. Wiji Arulampalam & Michael P Devereux & Giorgia Maffini, 2009. "The Direct Incidence of Corporate Income Tax on Wages," Working Papers 0917, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
   
   • Arulampalam, Wiji & Devereux, Michael P. & Maffini, Giorgia, 2012. "The direct incidence of corporate income tax on wages," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1038-1054.
   • Wiji Arulampalam & Michael P Devereux & Giorgia Maffini, 2007. "The Direct Incidence of Corporate Income Tax on Wages," Working Papers 0707, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
   • Arulampalam, Wiji & Devereux, Michael P. & Maffini, Giorgia, 2010. "The Direct Incidence of Corporate Income Tax on Wages," IZA Discussion Papers 5293, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
3. Rogoff, Kenneth & Sibert, Anne, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 1-16, January.
   
   • Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988. "Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles," NBER Working Papers 1838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
4. Matz Dahlberg & Eva Mörk, 2011. "Is There an Election Cycle in Public Employment? Separating Time Effects from Election Year Effects," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 57(3), pages 480-498, September.
   
   • Dahlberg, Matz & Mörk, Eva, 2008. "Is there an election cycle in public employment? Separating time effects from election year effects," Working Paper Series 2008:4, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
   • Matz Dahlberg & Eva Mörk, 2011. "Is there an election cycle in public employment? Separating time effects from election year effects," Working Papers 2011/8, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
   • Dahlberg, Matz & Mörk, Eva, 2008. "Is there an election cycle in public employment? Separating time effects from election year effects," Working Paper Series 2008:3, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
5. Francisco José Veiga & Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2004. "Political Business Cycles at the Municipal Level," NIPE Working Papers 4/2004, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
   
   • Linda Veiga & Francisco Veiga, 2007. "Political business cycles at the municipal level," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 45-64, April.
   • Linda Veiga & Francisco Veiga, 2004. "Political business cycles at the municipal level," ERSA conference papers ersa04p427, European Regional Science Association.
6. Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April.
7. Lindbeck, Assar, 1976. "Stabilization Policy in Open Economies with Endogenous Politicians," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 1-19, May.
8. Schuknecht, Ludger, 2000. " Fiscal Policy Cycles and Public Expenditure in Developing Countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 102(1-2), pages 115-30, January.
9. Kneebone, R.D. & McKenzie, K.J., 1998. "Electoral and Partisan Cycles in Fiscal Policy: an Examination of Canadian Provinces," Papers 98-06, Calgary - Department of Economics.
   
   • Ronald Kneebone & Kenneth McKenzie, 2001. "Electoral and Partisan Cycles in Fiscal Policy: An Examination of Canadian Provinces," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 8(5), pages 753-774, November.
10. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944.
11. Devereux, M.P. & Lockwood, B. & Redoano, M., 2007. "Horizontal and vertical indirect tax competition: Theory and some evidence from the USA," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(3-4), pages 451-479, April.
    
    • Devereux, Michael P & Lockwood, Ben & Redoano, Michela, 2004. "Horizontal and Vertical Indirect Tax Competition: Theory and Some Evidence From the USA," CEPR Discussion Papers 4470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Devereux, Michael & Lockwood, Ben & Redoano, Michela, 2004. "Horizontal And Vertical Indirect Tax Competition : Theory And Some Evidence From The Usa," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 704, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
12. Buettner, Thiess, 2003. "Tax base effects and fiscal externalities of local capital taxation: evidence from a panel of German jurisdictions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 110-128, July.

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Cited by:

1. Marcel Gérard & Laurent van Malderen, 2012. "Tax Interaction among Walloon Municipalities: Is there Room for Yardstick Competition, Intellectual Trend and Partisan Monopoly Effect?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4025, CESifo Group Munich.

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