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Searching for Political Business Cycles in Germany

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Author Info
 Berger, Helge
Woitek, Ulrich

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Abstract

One result of the revitalized literature on political business cycles is that there are signs in German data that elections and ideology have an impact. However, using monthly data for the period 1950-89, and standard methods of time series analysis, the authors reject both the Nordhaus hypothesis of opportunistic cycles and the partisan approaches by D. A. Hibbs and A. Alesina. They show that some results are sensitive to the assumption of stationarity. There are signs of policy cycles in M1. It is hard, though, to bring this in line with the Rogoff hypothesis of rational opportunistic cycles because of the German institutional setting. Copyright 1997 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

Volume (Year): 91 (1997)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 179-97
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:91:y:1997:i:2:p:179-97

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  1. Akhmedov Akhmed, . "Human capital and political business cycles," EERC Working Paper Series 03-213e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS. [Downloadable!]
  2. Koen Schoors & Konstantin Sonin, 2005. "Passive Creditors," Working Papers w0015, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Helge Berger & Jakob de Haan, 1997. "A State within the State? An Event Study on the Bundesbank," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  4. Helge Berger & Ulrich Woitek, . "Does Conservatism Matter? A Time Series Approach to Central Banking," Working Papers 9814, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, revised May 1999. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Akhmed Akhmedov, 2006. "Human Capital and Political Business Cycles," Working Papers w0087, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
  6. Sergio Sakurai & Naercio Menezes-Filho, 2008. "Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 301-314, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2005. "Foreign Exchange Intervention And The Political Business Cycle: A Panel Data Analysis," International Finance 0505009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Akhmed Akhmedov & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2004. "Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in a Young Democracy Setting," Economics Working Papers 0047, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Jörg Döpke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2004. "Politics and the Stock Market — Evidence from Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1203, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  10. Sakurai, Sergio N. & Menezes, Naercio A., 2008. "Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_115, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jula, Dorin, 2008. "Economic Impact of Political Cycles – The Relevance of European experinces for Romania," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 081101, Institute for Economic Forecasting. [Downloadable!]
  12. Akhmedov Akhmed, 2006. "Human Capital and Political Business Cycles," EERC Working Paper Series 06-02e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ansgar Belke & Niklas Potrafke, 2009. "Does Government Ideology Matter in Monetary Policy? – A Panel Data Analysis for OECD Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0094, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
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