Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in a Young Democracy Setting
AbstractThis paper tests the theory of opportunistic cycles in a decade-old democracy, Russia, finds strong evidence of cycles, and provides explanation for why previous literature often found weaker evidence. Using the comprehensive list of Russia's regional elections and regional monthly panel data between 1996 and 2003, we find that: (1) budget cycle is very sizable and short-lived: large expansion and contraction in fiscal spending occur within two months of elections on both sides; (2) the magnitude of the cycle decreases with government transparency, level of regional democracy, and voter awareness; (3) cycle becomes smaller over time; (4) pre-electoral manipulation increases incumbents’ chances for re-election. The results confirm theoretical findings that maturity of democracy, transparency, and voter awareness are important in determining the scope for opportunistic cycles. The short length of the cycle explains underestimation of its size by previous literature because of low frequency data used.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR) in its series Working Papers with number w0024.
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2003
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 117418 Russia, Moscow, Nakhimovsky pr., 47, office 720
Phone: +7 (495) 105 50 02
Fax: +7 (495) 105 50 03
Web page: http://www.cefir.ru
More information through EDIRC
Opportunistic political cycles; Maturity of democracy; Russia; Fiscal policy; Government transparency;
Other versions of this item:
- Akhmed Akhmedov & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2004. "Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in A Young Democracy Setting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(4), pages 1301-1338, November.
- Akhmed Akhmedov & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2004. "Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in a Young Democracy Setting," Economics Working Papers 0047, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science.
- H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
- P35 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Public Finance
- P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John P. Bonin & Yiping Huang, 2001.
"Dealing with the Bad Loans of the Chinese Banks,"
William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series
357, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Allen N. Berger, 1994.
"The relationship between capital and earnings in banking,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
94-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Berger, Allen N, 1995. "The Relationship between Capital and Earnings in Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 432-56, May.
- Allen Berger, 1994. "The Relationship Between Capital and Earnings in Banking," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 94-17, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1988.
"Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles,"
NBER Working Papers
1838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Park, Sangkyun & Peristiani, Stavros, 1998. "Market Discipline by Thrift Depositors," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 347-64, August.
- Hartmut Lehmann & Jonathan Wadsworth & Alessandro Acquisti, 1999.
"Grime and Punishment: Job Insecurity and Wage Arrears in the Russian Federation,"
CERT Discussion Papers
9907, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
- Lehmann, Hartmut & Wadsworth, Jonathan & Acquisti, Alessandro, 1999. "Grime and Punishment: Job Insecurity and Wage Arrears in the Russian Federation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 595-617, December.
- A Aquisti & H Lehmann & Jonathan Wadsworth, 1998. "Grime and Punishment: Job Insecurity and Wage Arrears in the Russian Federation," CEP Discussion Papers dp0403, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Hartmut Lehmann & Jonathan Wadsworth & Alessandro Asquisti, 1999. "Grime and Punishment: Job Insecurity and Wage Arrears in the Russian Federation," LICOS Discussion Papers 7999, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
- Lehmann, Hartmut & Wadsworth, Jonathan & Acquisti,Alessandro, 1998. "Grime And Punishment: Job Insecurity And Wage Arrears in The Russian Federation," Economics Technical Papers 986, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Sophie Brana & Mathilde Maurel, 2001.
"Démonétisation en Russie. Un arbitrage favorable au maintien de l'emploi,"
Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 52(4), pages 841-859.
- Mathilde Maurel & Sophie Brana, 2001. "Démonétisation en Russie. Un arbitrage favorable au maintien de l'emploi," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(4), pages 841-859.
- Mathilde Maurel & Sophie Brana, 2001. "Démonétisation en Russie : un arbitrage favorable au maintien de l’emploi," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/712, Sciences Po.
- Eric V. Clifton & Mohsin S. Khan, 1993. "Interenterprise Arrears in Transforming Economies: The Case of Romania," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(3), pages 680-696, September.
- J Bonin & M Schaffer, 1995. "Banks, Firms, Bad Debts and Bankruptcy in Hungary 1991-4," CEP Discussion Papers dp0234, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1992. "An Evaluation of the Treasury Plan for Banking Reform," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 133-153, Winter.
- Aleh Tsyvinski & Martin Petri & GÃ¼nther Taube, 2002. "Energy Sector Quasi-Fiscal Activities in the Countries of the Former Soviet Union," IMF Working Papers 02/60, International Monetary Fund.
- Maskin, Eric & Xu, Cheng-Gang, 2001.
"Soft Budget Constraint Theories: From Centralization to the Market,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2715, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Eric Maskin & Chenggang Xu, 2001. "Soft budget constraint theories: From centralization to the market," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, March.
- Berglof, Erik & Roland, Gerard, 1997. "Soft budget constraints and credit crunches in financial transition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 807-817, April.
- Matousek, R., 1995. "Non Performing Loans in the Czech Republic and the Role of the Consolidation Bank: A Financial Analysis," Discussion Papers 95-20, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- Lehmann, Hartmut & Wadsworth, Jonathan & Acquisti, Alessandro, 1999. "Grime and Punishment: Insecurity and Wage Arrears in the Russian Federation," IZA Discussion Papers 65, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Perotti, E. C., 1998. "Inertial credit and opportunistic arrears in transition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(9), pages 1703-1725, November.
- Schuknecht, Ludger, 2000. " Fiscal Policy Cycles and Public Expenditure in Developing Countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 102(1-2), pages 115-30, January.
- Schaffer, Mark E., 1998. "Do Firms in Transition Economies Have Soft Budget Constraints? A Reconsideration of Concepts and Evidence," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 80-103, March.
- Berger, Helge & Woitek, Ulrich, 1997. " Searching for Political Business Cycles in Germany," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 91(2), pages 179-97, April.
- Asli DemirgÃ¼Ã§-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
- Kornai, Janos, 2001. "Hardening the budget constraint: The experience of the post-socialist countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1573-1599, October.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julia Babich).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.