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Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
[The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]

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Author Info
Reinhart, Carmen
Kaminsky, Graciela

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Abstract

In the wake of the Mexican and Asian currency turmoil, the subject of financial crises has come to the forefront of academic and policy discussions. This paper analyzes the links between banking and currency crises. We find that: problems in the banking sector typically precede a currency crisis--the currency crisis deepens the banking crisis, activating a vicious spiral; financial liberalization often precedes banking crises. The anatomy of these episodes suggests that crises occur as the economy enters a recession, following a prolonged boom in economic activity that was fueled by credit, capital inflows and accompanied by an overvalued currency.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13842/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13842.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13842

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Related research
Keywords: crisis financieraso flujos de capital sis bancos crisis monetarias tipo de cambio credito;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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  1. Miller, Victoria, 2000. "Central bank reactions to banking crises in fixed exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 451-472, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Calvo, Guillermo A & Mendoza, Enrique G, 1996. "Petty Crime and Cruel Punishment: Lessons from the Mexican Debacle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 170-75, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Sara, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?”," MPRA Paper 7124, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1998. "High real interest rates in the aftermath of disinflation: is it a lack of credibility?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 191-214, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Velasco, Andres, 1987. "Financial crises and balance of payments crises : A simple model of the southern cone experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 263-283, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989. "Scoring the Leading Indicators," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-91, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Vicente Galbis, 1993. "High Real Interest Rates Under Financial Liberalization: Is There a Problem?," IMF Working Papers 93/7, International Monetary Fund.
  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 1996. "Forecasting turning points in Canada," MPRA Paper 13884, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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