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Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
[The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]

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  • Reinhart, Carmen
  • Kaminsky, Graciela

Abstract

In the wake of the Mexican and Asian currency turmoil, the subject of financial crises has come to the forefront of academic and policy discussions. This paper analyzes the links between banking and currency crises. We find that: problems in the banking sector typically precede a currency crisis--the currency crisis deepens the banking crisis, activating a vicious spiral; financial liberalization often precedes banking crises. The anatomy of these episodes suggests that crises occur as the economy enters a recession, following a prolonged boom in economic activity that was fueled by credit, capital inflows and accompanied by an overvalued currency.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13842/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13842.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13842

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Keywords: crisis financieraso flujos de capital sis bancos crisis monetarias tipo de cambio credito;

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References

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  1. Ronald I. McKinnon & Huw Pill, 1996. "Credible Liberalizations and International Capital Flows: The “Overborrowing Syndrome”," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 5, pages 7-50 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1998. "High real interest rates in the aftermath of disinflation: is it a lack of credibility?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 191-214, February.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
  5. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February.
  6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Miller, Victoria, 2000. "Central bank reactions to banking crises in fixed exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 451-472, December.
  8. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
  9. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1987. "Scoring the leading indicators," Special Studies Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 206, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1999. "Do Exchange Rate-Based Stabilizations Carry the Seeds of Their Own Destruction?," MPRA Paper 8952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Vicente Galbis, 1993. "High Real Interest Rates Under Financial Liberalization," IMF Working Papers 93/7, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters, Peterson Institute for International Economics, in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  14. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December.
  15. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 1996. "Forecasting turning points in Canada," MPRA Paper 13884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Velasco, Andres, 1987. "Financial crises and balance of payments crises : A simple model of the southern cone experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 263-283, October.
  17. Calvo, Guillermo A & Mendoza, Enrique G, 1996. "Petty Crime and Cruel Punishment: Lessons from the Mexican Debacle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 170-75, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Camilo González & Luisa F. Silva & Carmiña O. Vargas & Andrés M. Velasco, 2013. "An exploration on interbank markets and the operational framework of monetary policy in Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010982, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Javier Gómez Restrepo & Juan Sebastián Rojas Bohorquez, 2013. "Assessing Reserve Adequacy: The Colombian Case," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010981, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Javier Gómez Restrepo & Juan Sebastián Rojas Bohórquez, 2013. "Assessing Reserve Adequacy: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 781, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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