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High Real Interest Rates in the Aftermath of Disinflation: Is It a Lack of Credibility

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Author Info

  • Kaminsky, G.L.
  • Leiderman, L.

Abstract

This paper explores the empirical relevance of arguments based on lack of credibility for explaining high ex post real interest rates afetr stabilization programs were implemented in Argentina, Israel, and Mexico in the mid-1980s.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tel Aviv in its series Papers with number 8-96.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:teavfo:8-96

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Israel TEL-AVIV UNIVERSITY, THE FOERDER INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH, RAMAT AVIV 69 978 TEL AVIV ISRAEL.
Phone: 972-3-640-9255
Fax: 972-3-640-5815
Email:
Web page: http://econ.tau.ac.il/research/foerder.asp
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Related research

Keywords: INTEREST RATE; MONETARY POLICY;

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References

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  1. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
  2. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Kaminsky, Graciela L., 1991. "Debt relief and debt rescheduling : The optimal-contract approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 5-36, July.
  3. Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1986. "Stopping hyperinflations past and present," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 1-47, March.
  4. Rudiger Dornbusch & Juan Carlos de Pablo, 1989. "Debt and Macroeconomic Instability in Argentina," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and the World Economy, pages 37-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Hoe Ee Khor & Liliana Rojas-Suárez, 1991. "Interest Rates in Mexico - The Role of Exchange Rate Expectations and International Creditworthiness," IMF Working Papers 91/12, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 1995. "Credibility and Changes in Policy Regime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 176-208, February.
  8. Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "Inflation and Disinflation," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226471105, March.
  9. Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1992. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Policy Affect Real Rates?," Working Papers 92-22, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  10. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1992. "Are High Interest Rates Effective for Stopping High Inflation? Some Skeptical Notes," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(1), pages 55-69, January.
  11. Cukierman, Alex & Liviatan, Nissan, 1992. "The Dynamics of Optimal Gradual Stabilizations," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 439-58, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Isard, Peter & Laxton, Douglas & Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Inflation targeting with NAIRU uncertainty and endogenous policy credibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 115-148, January.
  2. McKibbin, Warwick & Marin, Will, 1999. "The East Asian crisis : investigating causes and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2172, The World Bank.
  3. Michael Bleaney & Marco Gundermann, 2002. "Stabilisations, Crises and the "Exit" Problem - A Theoretical Model," Macroeconomics 0207003, EconWPA.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Saravelo, George, 2011. "Can Leading Indicators Assess Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis," Scholarly Articles 5027952, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  6. Chin-Shien Lin & Haider A. Khan & Ying-Chieh Wang & Ruei-Yuan Chang, 2006. "A New Approach to Modeling Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises : can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," CARF F-Series CARF-F-065, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  7. Prof.Dr. Cevat GERNI & Doc.Dr. O. Selcuk EMSEN & Dr. M. Kemal DEGER, 2005. "Erken Uyari Sistemlerý Yoluyla Turkiye’Deki Ekonomik Krizlerin Analizi," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 2(1), pages 39-62, November.
  8. Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2004. "Leaning Against the Parity," Studies in Economics 0413, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  9. Prakash Kannan, 2008. "Perspectives on High Real Interest Rates in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 08/251, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
    [The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]    ," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Neven T. Valev & John A. Carlson, 2003. "Tenuous Financial Stability," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 540, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  12. repec:ays:ispwps:paper0210 is not listed on IDEAS

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