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Uncovering Financial Markets Beliefs About Inflation Targets

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Author Info
RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J.

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Abstract

This paper exploits the term structure of interest rates to develop testable economic restrictions on the joint process of long-term interest rates and inflation when the latter is subject to a targeting policy by the Central Bank. Two competing models that econometrically describe agents’ inferences about inflation targets are developed and shown to generate distinct predictions on the behavior of interest rates. In an empirical application to the Canadian inflation target zone, results indicate that agents perceive the band to be substantially narrower than officially announced and asymmetric around the stated mid-point. The latter result (i) suggests that the monetary authority attaches different weights to positive and negative deviations from the central target, and (ii) challenges on empirical grounds the assumption, frequently made in the literature, that the policy maker’s loss function is symmetric (usually a quadratic function) around a desired inflation value.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 9803.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:9803

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Related research
Keywords: inflation targets credibility asymmetries nonlinear rational exctations models

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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  2. McFadden, Daniel, 1989. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Samiei, Hossein, 1992. "Estimating limited-dependent rational expectations models with an application to exchange rate determination in a target zone," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 141-163. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Laroque, G. & Salanie, B., 1993. "Simulation-Based Estimation of Models with Lagged Latent Variables," Papers 9315, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques-.
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  8. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 1999. "Government expenditure and the dynamics of high inflation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 333-358, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Campbell, John Y, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-52, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 5893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Samiei, Hossein, 1995. "Limited-dependent rational expectations models with future expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1325-1353, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990. "What Does the Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 2626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 1996. "Limited-dependent rational expectations models with stochastic thresholds," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 267-276, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Perrier, Patrick, 1998. "Un examen de la crédibilité de la politique monétaire au Canada," Working Papers 98-12, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Robert Amano & Richard Black & Marcel Kasumovich, 1997. "A Band-Aid Solution to Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 97-11, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  22. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 1995. "Credibility and Changes in Policy Regime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 176-208, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110. [Downloadable!]
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  28. Holt, Matthew T & Johnson, Stanley R, 1989. "Bounded Price Variation and Rational Expectations in an Endogenous Switching Model of the U.S. Corn Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 605-13, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Francisco J. Ruge-Murciá, 2002. "A Prudent Central Banker," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 49(3), pages 7. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2005. "Expectations Anchoring in Inflation Targeting Regimes," Working Papers 0503, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ruge-Murcia, F.J., 2002. "Some Implications of the Zero Lower Bound on Interest Rates for the Term Structure and Monetary Policy," Cahiers de recherche 06-2002, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2001. "Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences," Banco de España Working Papers 0106, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Carlos Capistrán-Carmona, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 127, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Pierre St-Amant & David Tessier, 2000. "Résultats empiriques multi-pays relatifs à l'impact des cibles d'inflation sur la crédibilité de la politique monétaire," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 26(3), pages 295-310, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Perrier, Patrick, 1998. "Un examen de la crédibilité de la politique monétaire au Canada," Working Papers 98-12, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  8. Diana N. Weymark, 2001. "Inflation Targeting, Announcements, and Imperfect Credibility," Working Papers 0124, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, revised Apr 2002. [Downloadable!]
  9. Carlos Carmona, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2005-05, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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