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Résultats empiriques multi-pays relatifs à l'impact des cibles d'inflation sur la crédibilité de la politique monétaire

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  • St-Amant, Pierre
  • Tessier, David

Abstract

Over the last few years, many countries have adopted inflation targets. The objective of this paper is to report some empirical results that bear on the link between the adoption of inflation targets and the behaviour of the main macroeconomic variables. After a discussion of some recent articles analyzing international experience, some simple statistical tests are presented for determining the link between the adoption of inflation targets, the credibility of monetary policy, and the behaviour of the major macroeconomic variables. The literature survey and empirical results lead the authors to conclude that certain statistical properties of inflation may have changed in recent years, and that monetary policy seems to have become more credible in a number of countries, including Canada. Yet the available data do not allow the authors to conclude with any certainty that explicit inflation targets have played a significant role in these changes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 98-23.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:98-23

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Keywords: Inflation targets;

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References

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  1. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110.
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  3. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 1998. "Uncovering Financial Markets Beliefs About Inflation Targets," Cahiers de recherche, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques 9803, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  4. Robert Amano & Don Coletti & Tiff Macklem, 1999. "Monetary Rules When Economic Behaviour Changes," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal 81, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  5. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco .J., 2001. "Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences," Cahiers de recherche, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques 2001-04, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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  22. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1997. "Central bank independence and inflation targeting: monetary policy paradigms for the next millenium?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 19-36.
  23. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  24. Chan Huh, 1996. "Some evidence on the efficacy of the UK inflation targeting regime: an out-of-sample forecast approach," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 565, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  27. Rich, Georg, 1997. "Monetary targets as a policy rule: Lessons from the Swiss experience," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 113-141, June.
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  30. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer, 1988. "The New Keynsesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 1-82.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. NGUENA, Christian L., 2012. "Objectif de Stabilité des Prix et Croissance Economique en Zone CEMAC: Une Approche en Données de Panel
    [Price Stability Objectives and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Econometrics Empirical Investig
    ," MPRA Paper 49412, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Feb 2013.
  2. Lalonde, René & Page, Jennifer & St-Amant, Pierre, 1998. "Une nouvelle méthode d'estimation de l'écart de production et son application aux États-Unis, au Canada et à l'Allemagne," Working Papers, Bank of Canada 98-21, Bank of Canada.
  3. Jamie Armour, 2006. "An Evaluation of Core Inflation Measures," Working Papers, Bank of Canada 06-10, Bank of Canada.
  4. Hogan, Seamus & Marianne Johnson & Thérèse Laflèche, 2001. "Core Inflation," Technical Reports, Bank of Canada 89, Bank of Canada.
  5. Pierre Fortin, 2003. "Can Monetary Policy Make a Difference for Economic Growth and Inequality?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 29(s1), pages 223-232, January.
  6. Virginie Traclet, 2004. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Canada: Some Interesting Principles for EMU?," Working Papers, Bank of Canada 04-28, Bank of Canada.
  7. NGUENA, Christian L., 2012. "Objectif de Lutte contre l’Inflation et Croissance Economique en Afrique: la Nécessité d’une Alternative
    [Fighting against Inflation and economic growth in Africa: A necessity of alternative]
    ," MPRA Paper 49416, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Apr 2013.

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