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Uncovering Financial Markets Beliefs About Inflation Targets

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Author Info
Ruge-Murcia, F.J.

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Abstract

This paper exploits the term structure of interest rates to develop testable economic restrictions on the joint process of long-term interest rates and inflation when the latter is subject to a targeting policy by the Central Bank.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 9803.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtl:montec:9803

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Keywords: INFLATION ; EXPECTATIONS ; ECONOMIC MODELS;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Pesaran, Bahram, 1993. "A simulation approach to the problem of computing Cox's statistic for testing nonnested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 377-392. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. McFadden, Daniel, 1989. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Samiei, Hossein, 1992. "Estimating limited-dependent rational expectations models with an application to exchange rate determination in a target zone," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 141-163. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Robinson, Peter M, 1982. "On the Asymptotic Properties of Estimators of Models Containing Limited Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 27-41, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Osiewalski, J. & Koop, G. & Steel, M.F.J., 1997. "A stochastic frontier analysis of output level and growth in Poland and western economies," Discussion Paper 85, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 1999. "Government expenditure and the dynamics of high inflation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 333-358, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Campbell, John Y, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-52, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Nelson, Forrest D., 1977. "Censored regression models with unobserved, stochastic censoring thresholds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 309-327, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 5893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Samiei, Hossein, 1995. "Limited-dependent rational expectations models with future expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1325-1353, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Svensson, L.E.O., 1993. "The Simplest Test of Inflation Target Credibility," Papers 560, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    Other versions:
  15. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990. "What Does the Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 2626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 1996. "Limited-dependent rational expectations models with stochastic thresholds," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 267-276, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Perrier, Patrick, 1998. "Un examen de la crédibilité de la politique monétaire au Canada," Working Papers 98-12, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  19. Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Trognon A, 1984. "General approach of serial correlation (a)," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8424, CEPREMAP.
  20. Robert Amano & Richard Black & Marcel Kasumovich, 1997. "A Band-Aid Solution to Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 97-11, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  21. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 1995. "Credibility and Changes in Policy Regime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 176-208, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-82, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Shonkwiler, J S & Maddala, G S, 1985. "Modeling Expectations of Bounded Prices: An Application to the Market for Corn," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 697-702, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Geweke, John & Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David, 1994. "Alternative Computational Approaches to Inference in the Multinomial Probit Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 609-32, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  27. Holt, Matthew T & Johnson, Stanley R, 1989. "Bounded Price Variation and Rational Expectations in an Endogenous Switching Model of the U.S. Corn Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 605-13, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Laroque, Guy & Salanie, B, 1993. "Simulation-Based Estimation of Models with Lagged Latent Variables," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S119-33, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Hamilton, James D, 1985. "Uncovering Financial Market Expectations of Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(6), pages 1224-41, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1978. "Discrete Parameter Variation: Efficient Estimation of a Switching Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(2), pages 427-34, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ruge-Murcia, F.J., 2002. "Some Implications of the Zero Lower Bound on Interest Rates for the Term Structure and Monetary Policy," Cahiers de recherche 06-2002, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2001. "Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences," Banco de España Working Papers 0106, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Carlos Capistrán-Carmona, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 127, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Diana N. Weymark, 2001. "Inflation Targeting, Announcements, and Imperfect Credibility," Working Papers 0124, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, revised Apr 2002. [Downloadable!]
  5. Francisco J. Ruge-Murciá, 2002. "A Prudent Central Banker," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 49(3), pages 7. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2005. "Expectations Anchoring in Inflation Targeting Regimes," Working Papers 0503, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. St-Amant, Pierre & Tessier, David, 1998. "Résultats empiriques multi-pays relatifs à l'impact des cibles d'inflation sur la crédibilité de la politique monétaire," Working Papers 98-23, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Perrier, Patrick, 1998. "Un examen de la crédibilité de la politique monétaire au Canada," Working Papers 98-12, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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