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Uncovering Financial Markets Beliefs About Inflation Targets Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Ruge-Murcia, F.J.
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This paper exploits the term structure of interest rates to develop testable economic restrictions on the joint process of long-term interest rates and inflation when the latter is subject to a targeting policy by the Central Bank.
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Paper provided by Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ in its series Cahiers de recherche with number
9803.
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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 1998Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtl:montec:9803Contact details of provider: Postal: C.P. 6128, Succ. centre-ville, Montr�al (PQ) H3C 3J7 Phone: (514) 343-6557 Fax: (514) 343-5831 Email: Web page: http://www.cireq.umontreal.ca More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: INFLATION ; EXPECTATIONS ; ECONOMIC MODELS ; Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
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Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 1999.
"Government expenditure and the dynamics of high inflation ,"
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Other versions:
Ruge-Murcia, F.J., 1995.
"Government Expenditure and the Dynamics of High Inflation ,"
Cahiers de recherche
9529, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
Ruge-Murcia, F.J., 1995.
"Government Expenditure and the Dynamics of High Inflation ,"
Cahiers de recherche
9529, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997.
"Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy? ,"
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Other versions: Pesaran, M. Hashem & Samiei, Hossein, 1995.
"Limited-dependent rational expectations models with future expectations ,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control ,
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Other versions: Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988.
" Is the Real Interest Rate Stable? ,"
Journal of Finance ,
American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
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Svensson, L.E.O., 1993.
"The Simplest Test of Inflation Target Credibility ,"
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"What Does the Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation? ,"
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Other versions:
Mishkin, F.S., 1988.
"What Does The Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation? ,"
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fb-_88-29, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
Mishkin, Frederic S., 1990.
"What does the term structure tell us about future inflation? ,"
Journal of Monetary Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 77-95, January.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Hashem Pesaran, M. & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 1996.
"Limited-dependent rational expectations models with stochastic thresholds ,"
Economics Letters ,
Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 267-276, June.
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Other versions: Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997.
"Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power ,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
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Other versions: Perrier, Patrick, 1998.
"Un examen de la crédibilité de la politique monétaire au Canada ,"
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CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange)
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Robert Amano & Richard Black & Marcel Kasumovich, 1997.
"A Band-Aid Solution to Inflation Targeting ,"
Working Papers
97-11, Bank of Canada.
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Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 1995.
"Credibility and Changes in Policy Regime ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 176-208, February.
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Fama, Eugene F, 1975.
"Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation ,"
American Economic Review ,
American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-82, June.
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Shonkwiler, J S & Maddala, G S, 1985.
"Modeling Expectations of Bounded Prices: An Application to the Market for Corn ,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics ,
MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 697-702, November.
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Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987.
"Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
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Geweke, John & Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David, 1994.
"Alternative Computational Approaches to Inference in the Multinomial Probit Model ,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics ,
MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 609-32, November.
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Other versions: Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997.
"Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries ,"
Economic Policy Review ,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Holt, Matthew T & Johnson, Stanley R, 1989.
"Bounded Price Variation and Rational Expectations in an Endogenous Switching Model of the U.S. Corn Market ,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics ,
MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 605-13, November.
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Laroque, Guy & Salanie, B, 1993.
"Simulation-Based Estimation of Models with Lagged Latent Variables ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
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Hamilton, James D, 1985.
"Uncovering Financial Market Expectations of Inflation ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
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Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1978.
"Discrete Parameter Variation: Efficient Estimation of a Switching Regression Model ,"
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"Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models ,"
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Ruge-Murcia, F.J., 2002.
"Some Implications of the Zero Lower Bound on Interest Rates for the Term Structure and Monetary Policy ,"
Cahiers de recherche
06-2002, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2001.
"Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences ,"
Banco de España Working Papers
0106, Banco de España.
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Other versions:
RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco .J., 2001.
"Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences ,"
Cahiers de recherche
2001-04, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
[Downloadable!] Francisco Javier Ruge-Murcia, 2001.
"Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences ,"
IMF Working Papers
01/161, International Monetary Fund.
[Downloadable!] Ruge-Murcia, F.J., 2001.
"Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences ,"
Cahiers de recherche
2001-04, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 2003.
" Inflation Targeting under Asymmetric Preferences ,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking ,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 763-85, October.
Carlos Capistrán-Carmona, 2005.
"Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious? ,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2005
127, Society for Computational Economics.
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Carlos Carmona, 2005.
"Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious? ,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
2005-05, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
[Downloadable!] Carlos Capistrán, 2006.
"Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious? ,"
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2006-14, Banco de México.
[Downloadable!] Capistrán, Carlos, 2008.
"Bias in Federal Reserve inflation forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve irrational or just cautious? ,"
Journal of Monetary Economics ,
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[Downloadable!] (restricted) Diana N. Weymark, 2001.
"Inflation Targeting, Announcements, and Imperfect Credibility ,"
Working Papers
0124, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, revised Apr 2002.
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Francisco J. Ruge-Murciá, 2002.
"A Prudent Central Banker ,"
IMF Staff Papers ,
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Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2005.
"Expectations Anchoring in Inflation Targeting Regimes ,"
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0503, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics.
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St-Amant, Pierre & Tessier, David, 1998.
"Résultats empiriques multi-pays relatifs à l'impact des cibles d'inflation sur la crédibilité de la politique monétaire ,"
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98-23, Bank of Canada.
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Other versions: Perrier, Patrick, 1998.
"Un examen de la crédibilité de la politique monétaire au Canada ,"
Working Papers
98-12, Bank of Canada.
[Downloadable!]
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