The Simplest Test of Inflation Target Credibility
AbstractA simple test of inflation target credibility is constructed by subtracting the maximum and minimum inflation rates consistent with the inflation targets from the yields to maturity on nominal bonds. This results in a target-consistent range of real yields on nominal bonds. If expected real yields, or market real interest rates on real bonds if such are available, fall outside the range of target- consistent real yields, credibility is rejected. Two concepts of credibility, called absolute credibility and credibility in expectation, are distinguished. The inflation targets of Canada, New Zealand and Sweden are examined with convenient diagrams over yields to maturity and forward interest rates.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Stockholm - International Economic Studies in its series Papers with number 560.
Length: 11 pages
Date of creation: 1993
Date of revision:
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Postal: UNIVERSITY OF STOCKHOLM, INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES, S- 106 91 STOCKHOLM SWEDEN.
Web page: http://www.iies.su.se/
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monetary policy ; exchange rate ; inflation;
Other versions of this item:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
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