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Expectations Anchoring in Inflation Targeting Regimes

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Author Info
Oleg Korenok () (Department of Economics, VCU School of Business)
Stanislav Radchenko () (Department of Economics, University of North Carolina at Charlotte)

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Abstract

Central banks adopt an inflation targeting policy with a goal to anchor inflation expectations. We argue that the expectations anchoring test developed in the context of the Krugman (1991) exchange rate targeting model is well-suited for inflation targeting applications. The test quantifies nonlinearity between realized and expected inflation for very high and very low inflation levels. It does not require comparison with the control group of non-targeting countries, avoiding critique of the benchmark approach. We test inflation targeting in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, the United Kingdom and find weak support for expectations anchoring.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by VCU School of Business, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0503.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:vcu:wpaper:0503

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Related research
Keywords: monetary policy; inflation; exchange rate; target zone model; expectations anchoring;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Svensson, Lars E O, 1995. "The Swedish Experience of an Inflation Target," CEPR Discussion Papers 1103, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Forbes, C.S. & Kofman, P., 2000. "Bayesian Soft Target Zones," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/2000, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Mundaca, B. Gabriela, 2001. "Central bank interventions and exchange rate band regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 677-700, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Johnson, David R., 2002. "The effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation: evidence from an 11 country panel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1521-1538, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Robert J. Tetlow, 2000. "Inflation targeting and target instability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One decade of inflation targeting in the world : What do we know and what do we need to know?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 101, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Pesaran, M Hashem & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 1999. "Analysis of Exchange-Rate Target Zones Using a Limited-Dependent Rational-Expectations Model with Jumps," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 50-66, January.
  9. Li, Kai, 1999. "Exchange Rate Target Zone Models: A Bayesian Evaluation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 461-90, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!]
  10. Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998. "Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2003. "Monetary policy and learning," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 11-16. [Downloadable!]
  12. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "The macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 51-80. [Downloadable!]
  13. Robert Amano & Richard Black & Marcel Kasumovich, 1997. "A Band-Aid Solution to Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 97-11, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  14. Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2000. "Uncovering financial markets' beliefs about inflation targets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 483-512. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Paul Krugman & Marcus Miller, 1992. "Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krug92-1, September.
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