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A Measure for Credibility: Tracking US Monetary Developments

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Author Info

  • Maria Demertzis
  • Massimiliano Marcellino
  • Nicola Viegi

Abstract

Our objective is to identify a way of checking empirically the extent to which expectations are de-coupled from inflation, how well they might be anchored in the long run, and at what level. This methodology allows us then to identify a measure for the degree of anchorness, and as anchored expectations are associated with credibility, this will serve as a proxy for credibility. We apply this methodology to the US history of inflation since 1963 and examine how well our measure tracks the periods for which credibility is known to be either low or high. Of particular interest to the validity of the measure is the start of the Great Moderation. Following the narrative of a number of well documented incidents in this period, we check how well our measure captures both the evolution of credibility in US monetary policy, as well as reactions to inflation scares.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 187.

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Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:187

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Keywords: Great Inflation; Great Moderation; Anchors for Expectations;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Kliem, Martin & Sarferaz, Samad, 2013. "On the low-frequency relationship between public deficits and inflation," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80000, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  2. J. Scott Davis, 2012. "The effect of commodity price shocks on underlying inflation: the role of central bank credibility," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 134, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  3. Malikane, Christopher & Mokoka, Tshepo, 2012. "Monetary policy credibility: A Phillips curve view," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 266-271.
  4. Timo Henckel & Gordon Menzies & Daniel J. Zizzo, 2013. "The Great Recession and the Two Dimensions of European Central Bank Credibility," Working Paper Series 13, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  5. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  6. Galvão, Ana Beatriz C & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2010. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Regimes and the Great Moderation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7827, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Serkan ÇİÇEK & Cüneyt AKAR & Eray YÜCEL, 2011. "Türkiye’de enflasyon beklentilerinin çapalanması ve güvenilirlik," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 26(304), pages 37-55.

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