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A Measure for Credibility: Tracking US Monetary Developments

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  • Demertzis, Maria
  • Marcellino, Massimiliano
  • Viegi, Nicola

Abstract

Our objective is to identify a way of checking empirically the extent to which expectations are de-coupled from inflation, how well they might be anchored in the long run, and at what level. This methodology allows us then to identify a measure for the degree of anchorness, and as anchored expectations are associated with credibility, this will serve as a proxy for credibility. We apply this methodology to the US history of inflation since 1963 and examine how well our measure tracks the periods for which credibility is known to be either low or high. Of particular interest to the validity of the measure is the start of the Great Moderation. Following the narrative of a number of well documented incidents in this period, we check how well our measure captures both the evolution of credibility in US monetary policy, as well as reactions to inflation scares.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7036.

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Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7036

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Keywords: anchors for expectations; credibility; Great Inflation; Great Moderation;

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References

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  1. Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2007. "Inflation Targeting - a Framework for Communication," DNB Working Papers 149, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Will Monetary Policy Become More of a Science?," NBER Working Papers 13566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Vittorio Corbo & Óscar Landerretche & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2002. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 5, pages 221-270 Central Bank of Chile.
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  6. Alex Brazier & Richard Harrison & Mervyn King & Tony Yates, 2006. "The danger of inflating expectations of macroeconomic stability: heuristic switching in an overlapping generations monetary model," Bank of England working papers 303, Bank of England.
  7. Stefania Albanesi & V. V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2003. "Expectation traps and monetary policy," Staff Report 319, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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  11. Croushore, Dean & Koot, Ronald S., 1994. "A measure of federal reserve credibility," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 215-231, April.
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  18. Refet S Gürkaynak & Andrew Levin & Eric Swanson, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the U.S., UK, and Sweden," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1208-1242, December.
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  21. Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher Gust, 2000. "The expectations trap hypothesis," Working Paper 0004, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
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  24. Eyal Argov & David Rose & Philippe D Karam & Natan P. Epstein & Douglas Laxton, 2007. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Credibility in a Small Macro Model of Israel," IMF Working Papers 07/207, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Timo Henckel & Gordon D. Menzies & Daniel J. Zizzo, 2013. "The Great Recession and the Two Dimensions of European Central Bank Credibility," CAMA Working Papers 2013-55, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Todd E. Clark & Troy Davig, 2008. "An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 08-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  3. Galvão, Ana Beatriz C & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2010. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Regimes and the Great Moderation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7827, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. J. Scott Davis, 2012. "The effect of commodity price shocks on underlying inflation: the role of central bank credibility," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 134, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  5. Malikane, Christopher & Mokoka, Tshepo, 2012. "Monetary policy credibility: A Phillips curve view," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 266-271.
  6. Serkan ÇİÇEK & Cüneyt AKAR & Eray YÜCEL, 2011. "Türkiye’de enflasyon beklentilerinin çapalanması ve güvenilirlik," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 26(304), pages 37-55.
  7. Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Sarferaz, Samad, 2013. "On the low-frequency relationship between public deficits and inflation," Discussion Papers 12/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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