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The danger of inflating expectations of macroeconomic stability: heuristic switching in an overlapping generations monetary model

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Alex Brazier
Richard Harrison
Mervyn King
Tony Yates

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Abstract

The volatility of inflation and output has fallen in most advanced economies in the 1990s and 2000s. We use a monetary overlapping generations model to discuss the cause and durability of this macroeconomic change. In that model, agents' decision rules require them to make forecasts of future inflation, which, because of shocks to productivity, is uncertain. Agents make forecasts of inflation using two rules of thumb or 'heuristics'. One is based on lagged inflation, the other on an inflation target announced by the central bank. They switch between those heuristics based on an imperfect assessment of how each has performed in the past. The way the economy propagates productivity shocks into inflation depends on the proportion of agents using each. Movements in that proportion generate fluctuations in small sample measures of economic volatility. We use this simple model of heuristic switching to contrast the performance of monetary policy rules. We find that, relative to the rule that would be optimal under rational expectations, a rule that responds to both productivity shocks and inflation expectations better stabilises the economy but does not prevent agents switching between heuristics. Finally, we study the impact of introducing an explicit inflation target, which can be used by agents as a simple heuristic, into an economy that did not previously have one. Depending on the heuristics agents have access to before the introduction of the target, this can result in reduced inflation volatility.

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  3. Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Drifts and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII US," Working Papers 2133503, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Vitor Gaspar & Frank Smets & David Vestin, 2006. "Adaptive Learning, Persistence, and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 376-385, 04-05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Daniel Kahneman, 2003. "Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1449-1475, December. [Downloadable!]
  7. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 9884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "Intrinsic heterogeneity in expectation formation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 264-295, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Luca Benati, . "UK monetary regimes and macroeconomic stylised facts," Bank of England working papers 290, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Brock, William A. & de Fontnouvelle, Patrick, 2000. "Expectational diversity in monetary economies1," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 725-759, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1045-1084.
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  12. Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Paper Series 334, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  13. George W. Evans & William A. Branch, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 33, Society for Computational Economics.
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  14. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2006. "Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Marie Diron & Benoît Mojon, 2005. "Forecasting the central bank’s inflation objective is a good rule of thumb," Working Paper Series 564, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paul De Grauwe, 2008. "Macroeconomic Modeling when Agents are Imperfectly Informed," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mikhail Anufriev & Tiziana Assenza & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, . "Interest Rate Rules and Macroeconomic Stability under Heterogeneous Expectations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-040/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  3. Maria Demertzis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Nicola Viegi, 2008. "A Measure for Credibility: Tracking US Monetary Developments," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/38, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Paul De Grauwe, 2008. "DSGE-Modelling - when agents are imperfectly informed," Working Paper Series 897, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Paul De Grauwe, 2008. "Animal Spirits and Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  6. Anufriev, M. & Assenza, T. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2008. "Interest Rate Rules with Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Working Papers 08-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  7. Evans , George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2007. "Expectations, learning and monetary policy: an overview of recent research," Research Discussion Papers 32/2007, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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