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Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments

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  • Mikhail Anufriev
  • Cars Hommes

Abstract

In recent "learning to forecast" experiments (Hommes et al. 2005), three different patterns in aggregate price behavior have been observed: slow monotonic convergence, permanent oscillations, and dampened fluctuations. We show that a simple model of individual learning can explain these different aggregate outcomes within the same experimental setting. The key idea is evolutionary selection among heterogeneous expectation rules, driven by their relative performance. The out-of-sample predictive power of our switching model is higher compared to the rational or other homogeneous expectations benchmarks. Our results show that heterogeneity in expectations is crucial to describe individual forecasting and aggregate price behavior. (JEL C53, C91, D83, D84, G12)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Journal: Microeconomics.

Volume (Year): 4 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 35-64

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmic:v:4:y:2012:i:4:p:35-64

Note: DOI: 10.1257/mic.4.4.35
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References

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  1. Cees Diks & Roy van der Weide, 2003. "Herding, A-synchronous Updating and Heterogeneity in Memory in a CBS," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-103/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  2. Noussair, C.N. & Lei , V. & Plott, C., 2001. "Non-speculative bubbles in experimental asset markets: Lack of common knowledge of rationality vs. actual irrationality," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-381105, Tilburg University.
  3. Klaus Adam, 2007. "Experimental Evidence on the Persistence of Output and Inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 603-636, 04.
  4. repec:att:wimass:9621 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J., 2006. "Price Stability and Volatility in Markets with Positive and Negative Expectations Feedback: An Experimental Investigation," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  6. Eva Carceles-Poveda & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2008. "Asset Pricing with Adaptive Learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 629-651, July.
  7. de Jong, Eelke & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2009. "Behavioural heterogeneity and shift-contagion: Evidence from the Asian crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1929-1944, November.
  8. Tiziana Assenza & Peter Heemeijer & Cars Hommes & Domenica Massaro, 2011. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior," DNB Working Papers, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department 298, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  9. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  10. Arthur, W Brian, 1991. "Designing Economic Agents that Act Like Human Agents: A Behavioral Approach to Bounded Rationality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 353-59, May.
  11. Hommes, C.H., 2010. "The Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis: Some Evidence from the Lab," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  12. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "Intrinsic heterogeneity in expectation formation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 264-295, March.
  13. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2011. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Design: Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaces CentER DP 2009-007)," Discussion Paper, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research 2011-091, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  14. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  15. Hey, John D., 1994. "Expectations formation: Rational or adaptive or ...?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 329-349, December.
  16. Hommes, Cars & Huang, Hai & Wang, Duo, 2005. "A robust rational route to randomness in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1043-1072, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Pfajfar, D., 2012. "Formation of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations," Discussion Paper, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research 2012-083, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Anufriev, M. & Tuinstra, J., 2013. "The impact of short-selling constraints on financial market stability in a heterogeneous agents model," CeNDEF Working Papers 13-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  3. Anufriev, Mikhail & Kopányi, Dávid & Tuinstra, Jan, 2013. "Learning cycles in Bertrand competition with differentiated commodities and competing learning rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2562-2581.
  4. Hüsler, A. & Sornette, D. & Hommes, C.H., 2013. "Super-exponential bubbles in lab experiments: Evidence for anchoring over-optimistic expectations on price," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 304-316.
  5. Tiziana Assenza & William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2013. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Emergence of Booms and Busts," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-205/II, Tinbergen Institute.
  6. Tiziana Assenza & William Brock & Cars Hommes, 2013. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Emergence of Booms and Busts," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE) def7, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
  7. Hommes, Cars H., 2014. "Behaviorally Rational Expectations and Almost Self-Fulfilling Equilibria," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, now publishers, vol. 1(1-2), pages 75-97, January.
  8. Goodman, James, 2014. "Evidence for ecological learning and domain specificity in rational asset pricing and market efficiency," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 27-39.
  9. Cars Hommes, 2013. "Reflexivity, expectations feedback and almost self-fulfilling equilibria: economic theory, empirical evidence and laboratory experiments," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 406-419, December.
  10. Eizo Akiyama & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2012. "Effect of Uncertainty about Others' Rationality in Experimental Asset Markets: An Experimental Analysis," Working Papers halshs-00793613, HAL.
  11. Cars Hommes, 2013. "Reflexivity, Expectations Feedback and almost Self-fulfilling Equilibria: Economic Theory, Empirical Evidence and Laboratory Experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-206/II, Tinbergen Institute.
  12. Eizo Akiyama & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Ryuchiro Ishikawa, 2012. "Effect of uncertainty about others’ rationality in experimental asset markets," AMSE Working Papers 1234, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France.
  13. Valentyn Panchenko & Sergiy Gerasymchuk & Oleg V. Pavlov, 2013. "Asset Price Dynamics with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Local Network Interactions," Discussion Papers, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales 2013-18, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  14. Assenza, T. & Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 2012. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Amplification and Duration of Crises," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  15. Jakob Grazzini, 2013. "Information dissemination in an experimentally based agent-based stock market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 179-209, April.
  16. Cars Hommes, 2013. "Behaviorally Rational Expectations and Almost Self-Ful lling Equilibria," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-204/II, Tinbergen Institute.
  17. Panchenko, Valentyn & Gerasymchuk, Sergiy & Pavlov, Oleg V., 2013. "Asset price dynamics with heterogeneous beliefs and local network interactions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2623-2642.

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