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Bounded Rationality and Learning in Complex Markets

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Author Info
Hommes, C.H. () (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

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Abstract

This chapter reviews some work on bounded rationality, expectation formation and learning in complex markets, using the familiar demand-supply cobweb model. We emphasize two stories of bounded rationality, one story of adaptive learning and another story of evolutionary selection. According to the adaptive learning story agents are identical, and can be represented by an ``average agent'', who adapts his behavior trying to learn an optimal rule within a class of simple (e.g. linear) rules. The second story is concerned with heterogeneous, interacting agents and evolutionary selection of different forecasting rules. Agents can choose between costly sophisticated forecasting strategies, such as rational expectations, and freely available simple strategies, such as naive expectations, based upon their past performance. We also confront both stories to laboratory experiments on expectation formation. At the end of the chapter, we integrate both stories and consider an economy with evolutionary selection between a costly sophisticated adaptive learning rule and a cheap simple forecasting rule such as naive expectations.

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Paper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 07-01.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:07-01

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Postal: Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands
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  2. H. Scott Gordon, 1954. "The Economic Theory of a Common-Property Resource: The Fishery," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62, pages 124. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Cars Hommes & Gerhard Sorger, 1997. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-051/1, Tinbergen Institute.
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  7. Jan Tuinstra & Pietro Dindo, 2006. "A Behavioral Model for Participation Games with Negative Feedback," Working Papers wp06-15, Warwick Business School, Financial Econometrics Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Arthur, W. Brian, 2006. "Out-of-Equilibrium Economics and Agent-Based Modeling," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 32, pages 1551-1564 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2005. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 955-980. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. LeBaron, Blake, 2006. "Agent-based Computational Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1187-1233 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. repec:att:wimass:19956 is not listed on IDEAS
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  27. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "Intrinsic heterogeneity in expectation formation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 264-295, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Ramon Marimon & Shyam Sunder, 1993. "Expectations and Learning Under Alternative Monetary Regimes: An Experimental Approach," Economics Working Papers 37, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  30. Jan Tuinstra & Florian Wagener, 2007. "On learning equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 493-513, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. Hommes, Cars H., 1991. "Adaptive learning and roads to chaos : The case of the cobweb," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 127-132, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. Kirman, A., 1997. "Interaction and Markets," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 97a02, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
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  33. Hommes, Cars H., 1994. "Dynamics of the cobweb model with adaptive expectations and nonlinear supply and demand," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 315-335, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Sonnemans, Joep & Hommes, Cars & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2004. "The instability of a heterogeneous cobweb economy: a strategy experiment on expectation formation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 453-481, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  35. C.H. Hommes & J.H. Sonnemans & J. Tuinstra & H. van de Velde, 2003. "Learning in Cobweb Experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-020/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  39. Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J., 2006. "Price Stability and Volatility in Markets with Positive and Negative Expectations Feedback: An Experimental Investigation," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
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