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Bounded Rationality and Learning in Complex Markets

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  • Hommes, C.H.

    ()
    (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

Abstract

This chapter reviews some work on bounded rationality, expectation formation and learning in complex markets, using the familiar demand-supply cobweb model. We emphasize two stories of bounded rationality, one story of adaptive learning and another story of evolutionary selection. According to the adaptive learning story agents are identical, and can be represented by an ``average agent'', who adapts his behavior trying to learn an optimal rule within a class of simple (e.g. linear) rules. The second story is concerned with heterogeneous, interacting agents and evolutionary selection of different forecasting rules. Agents can choose between costly sophisticated forecasting strategies, such as rational expectations, and freely available simple strategies, such as naive expectations, based upon their past performance. We also confront both stories to laboratory experiments on expectation formation. At the end of the chapter, we integrate both stories and consider an economy with evolutionary selection between a costly sophisticated adaptive learning rule and a cheap simple forecasting rule such as naive expectations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 07-01.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:07-01

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Postal: Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
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Web page: http://www.fee.uva.nl/cendef/
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References

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Cited by:
  1. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear expectations in speculative markets: Evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters," Discussion Papers 311, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  2. Robert Amano & Jim Engle-Warnick & Malik Shukayev, 2011. "Price-Level Targeting and Inflation Expectations: Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 11-18, Bank of Canada.

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