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Expectationally-driven market volatility: an experimental study

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Author Info
Ramon Marimon
Stephen E. Spear
Shyam Sunder

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Abstract

We study the existence and robustness of expectationally-driven price volatility in experimental overlapping generation economies. In the theoretical model under study there exist “pure sunspot” equilibria which can be “learned” if agents use some adaptive learning rules. Our data show the existence of expectationally-driven cycles, but only after subjects have been exposed to a sequence of real shocks and “learned” a real cycle. In this sense, we show evidence of path-dependent price volatility.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics with number 73.

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Date of creation: 1992
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmem:73

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Keywords: Prices;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Evans, George W., 1986. "Selection criteria for models with non-uniqueness," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 147-157, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Spear, Stephen E. & Srivastava, Sanjay & Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Indeterminacy of stationary equilibrium in stochastic overlapping generations models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 265-284, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Spear, Stephen E., 1984. "Sufficient conditions for the existence of sunspot equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 360-370, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Evans, George W., 1989. "The fragility of sunspots and bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 297-317, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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