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Robustness of Adaptive Expectations as an Equilibrium Selection Device

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Author Info
Lettau, Martin
Van Zandt, Timothy

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Abstract

Dynamic models in which agents' behaviour depends on expectations of future prices or other endogenous variables can have steady states that are stationary equilibria for a wide variety of expectations rules, including rational expectations. When there are multiple steady states, stability is a criterion for selecting predictions of long-run outcomes among them. The purpose of this Paper is to study how sensitive stability is to certain details of the expectations rules, in a simple OLG model with constant government debt that is financed through seigniorage. We compare simple recursive learning rules, learning rules with vanishing gain, and OLS learning, and also relate these to expectational stability. One finding is that two adaptive expectation rules that differ only in whether they use current information can have opposite stability properties.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2882.

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Date of creation: Jul 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2882

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Related research
Keywords: adaptive expectations; inflation; stability;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. James Bullard, 1991. "Learning equilibria," Working Papers 1991-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Evans, George W., 1989. "The fragility of sunspots and bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 297-317, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ramon Marimon & Shyam Sunder, 1993. "Indeterminacy of Equilibria in a Hyperinflationary World: Experimental Evidence," Economics Working Papers 25, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Evans, Jean Lynne & Yarrow, George Keith, 1981. "Some Implications of Alternative Expectations Hypotheses in the Monetary Analysis of Hyperinflations," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 61-80, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Duffy John, 1994. "On Learning and the Nonuniqueness of Equilibrium in an Overlapping Generations Model with Fiat Money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 541-553, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2000. "exposita notes : Convergence for difference equations with vanishing time-dependence, with applications to adaptive learning," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 717-725. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Guesnerie, R. & Woodford, M., 1990. "Stability of Cycles with Adaptive Learning Rules," DELTA Working Papers 90-25, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  9. Evans, George, 1985. "Expectational Stability and the Multiple Equilibria Problem in Linear Rational Expectations Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1217-33, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Guesnerie, R. & Woodford, M., 1991. "Endogenous Fluctuations," DELTA Working Papers 91-10, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Klaus Adam, 2001. "Learning and Equilibrium Selection in a Monetary Overlapping Generations Model with Sticky," CSEF Working Papers 69, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  2. Oscar J. Arce, 2006. "Speculative Hyperinflations: When Can We Rule Them Out?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 376, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Shurojit Chatterji & Ignacio Lobato, 2007. "Transformations of the State Variable and Learning Dynamics," Working Papers 0708, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Kevin J. Lansing, 2005. "Lock-in of extrapolative expectations in an asset pricing model," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Óscar J. Arce, 2006. "Speculative hyperinflations: when can we rule them out?," Banco de España Working Papers 0607, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  6. Klaus Adam, 2003. "Learning and Equilibrium Selection in a Monetary Overlapping Generations Model with Sticky Prices," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/03, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Marimon, Ramon, 2001. "Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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