Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Self-Fulfilling Risk Panics

Contents:

Author Info

  • Philippe Bacchetta
  • Cédric Tille
  • Eric van Wincoop

Abstract

Recent crises have seen very large spikes in asset price risk without dramatic shifts in fundamentals. We propose an explanation for these risk panics based on self-fulfilling shifts in risk made possible by a negative link between the current asset price and risk about the future asset price. This link implies that risk about tomorrow's asset price depends on uncertainty about risk tomorrow. This dynamic mapping of risk into itself gives rise to the possibility of multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling shifts in risk. We show that this can generate risk panics. The impact of the panic is larger when the shift from a low to a high risk equilibrium takes place in an environment of weak fundamentals. The sharp increase in risk leads to a large drop in the asset price, decreased leverage and reduced market liquidity. We show that the model can account well for the developments during the recent financial crisis.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w16159.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16159.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16159

Note: AP EFG IFM
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Goyenko, Ruslan Y. & Holden, Craig W. & Trzcinka, Charles A., 2009. "Do liquidity measures measure liquidity?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 153-181, May.
  2. Allen, F. & Gale, D., 1991. "Limited Market Participation and Volatility of Asset Prices," Weiss Center Working Papers 2-92, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  3. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 7104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jean-Pierre Zigrand & Hyun Song Shin & Jon Danielsson, 2010. "Risk Appetite and Endogenous Risk," FMG Discussion Papers dp647, Financial Markets Group.
  5. Acharya, Viral V & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2003. "Asset Pricing with Liquidity Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 3749, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Dimitri Vayanos & Jiang Wang, 2009. "Liquidity and Asset Prices: A Unified Framework," FMG Discussion Papers dp639, Financial Markets Group.
  7. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2001. "Equilibrium and Welfare in Markets with Financially Constrained Arbitrageurs," CEPR Discussion Papers 3049, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Pagano, Marco, 1989. "Endogenous Market Thinness and Stock Price Volatility," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 269-87, April.
  9. Xavier Gabaix, 2012. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 645-700.
  10. Campbell, Rachel & Huisman, Ronald & Koedijk, Kees, 2001. "Optimal portfolio selection in a Value-at-Risk framework," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1789-1804, September.
  11. Brunnermeier, Markus K & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," CEPR Discussion Papers 6179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Nicholas Bloom, 2007. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Manuelli, Rodolfo & Peck, James, 1992. "Sunspot-like effects of random endowments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 193-206, April.
  14. Spear, Stephen E. & Srivastava, Sanjay & Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Indeterminacy of stationary equilibrium in stochastic overlapping generations models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 265-284, April.
  15. McCafferty, Stephen & Driskill, Robert, 1980. "Problems of Existence and Uniqueness in Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1313-17, July.
  16. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 552-576, June.
  17. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2007. "Collective Risk Management in a Flight to Quality Episode," NBER Working Papers 12896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Suleyman Basak & Georgy Chabakauri, 2010. "Dynamic Mean-Variance Asset Allocation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(8), pages 2970-3016, August.
  19. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Financial intermediary leverage and value at risk," Staff Reports 338, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  20. Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Variable Rare Disasters: A Tractable Theory of Ten Puzzles in Macro-finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 64-67, May.
  21. Xiong, Wei, 2001. "Convergence trading with wealth effects: an amplification mechanism in financial markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 247-292, November.
  22. Barro, Robert, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," Scholarly Articles 3208215, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  23. Walker, Todd B. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2007. "Multiple equilibria in a simple asset pricing model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 191-196, December.
  24. John Geanakoplos & Ana Fostel, 2008. "Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1211-44, September.
  25. Denis Gromb & Dimitri Vayanos, 2002. "Equilibrium and welfare in markets with financially constrained arbitrageurs," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 448, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  26. Albert S. Kyle, 2001. "Contagion as a Wealth Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1401-1440, 08.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Philippe Bacchetta & Cédric Tille & Eric van Wincoop, 2011. "Regulating Asset Price Risk," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 11.02, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  2. Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula & Jan J. J. Groen, 2010. "Financial amplification of foreign exchange risk premia," Staff Reports 461, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2012. "Sudden Spikes in Global Risk," Working Papers 062012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.