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Abstract

We model consumption and dividend growth rates as containing (1) a small long-run predictable component, and (2) fluctuating economic uncertainty (consumption volatility). These dynamics, for which we provide empirical support, in conjunction with Epstein and Zin's (1989) preferences, can explain key asset markets phenomena. In our economy, financial markets dislike economic uncertainty and better long-run growth prospects raise equity prices. The model can justify the equity premium, the risk-free rate, and the volatility of the market return, risk-free rate, and the price-dividend ratio. As in the data, dividend yields predict returns and the volatility of returns is time-varying. Copyright 2004 by The American Finance Association.

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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 59 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (08)
Pages: 1481-1509

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509

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• G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

References

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