Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Price Stability and Volatility in Markets with Positive and Negative Expectations Feedback: An Experimental Investigation

Contents:

Author Info

  • Heemeijer, P.

    ()
    (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

  • Hommes, C.H.

    (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

  • Sonnemans, J.

    (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

  • Tuinstra, J.

    (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

Abstract

The evolution of many economic variables is affected by expectations that economic agents have with respect to the future development of these variables. Here we show, by means of laboratory experiments, that market behavior depends to a large extent on how the realized market price responds to an increase in average price expectations. If it responds by decreasing, as in commodity markets, prices converge quickly to their equilibrium value, confirming the rational expectations hypothesis. If the realized price increases after an increase of average expectations, as is typical for financial markets, large fluctuations in realized prices are likely.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www1.fee.uva.nl/cendef/publications/papers/HHSTMarch2007.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 06-05.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:06-05

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
Email:
Web page: http://www.fee.uva.nl/cendef/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October.
  2. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  3. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, . "Does Money Illusion Matter?," IEW - Working Papers 012, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  4. Potters, J.J.M. & Suetens, S., 2006. "Cooperation in Experimental Games of Strategic Complements and Substitutes," Discussion Paper 2006-48, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2004. "Limited Rationality and Strategic Interaction - The Impact of the Strategic Environment on Nominal Inertia," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000092, UCLA Department of Economics.
  6. Barberis, Nicholas & Thaler, Richard, 2003. "A survey of behavioral finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1053-1128 Elsevier.
  7. Marimon, Ramon & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Indeterminacy of Equilibria in a Hyperinflationary World: Experimental Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1073-107, September.
  8. Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 119-37, February.
  9. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2004. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 119, Netherlands Central Bank.
  10. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186 Elsevier.
  11. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2006. "Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January.
  12. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2005. "Individual Irrationality and Aggregate Outcomes," Discussion Papers 05-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  13. Adam, Klaus, 2005. "Experimental evidence on the persistence of output and inflation," Working Paper Series 0492, European Central Bank.
  14. Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. & Arlington W. Williams & Raymond Battalio & Timothy Mason, 1989. "Tests of rational expectations in a stark setting," Working Papers 1989-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  15. Noussair, C.N. & Lei , V. & Plott, C., 2001. "Non-speculative bubbles in experimental asset markets: Lack of common knowledge of rationality vs. actual irrationality," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-381105, Tilburg University.
  16. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  17. Peterson, Steven P., 1993. "Forecasting dynamics and convergence to market fundamentals : Evidence from experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 269-284, December.
  18. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
  19. Vernon L. Smith, 1962. "An Experimental Study of Competitive Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70, pages 322.
  20. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. " Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-95, June.
  21. Roger Guesnerie, 2005. "Strategic Substitutabilities Versus Strategic Complementarities : Towards a General Theory of Expectational Coordination ?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 0(4), pages 393-412.
  22. Thierry Roncalli & Gael Riboulet & Ashkan Nikeghbali & Vado Durrleman & Erick Bouy?, 2001. "Copulas: an Open Field for Risk Management," Working Papers wp01-01, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  23. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
  24. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
  25. Kirman, Alan, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-56, February.
  26. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  27. Ramon Marimon & Stephen E. Spear & Shyam Sunder, 1992. "Expectationally-driven market volatility: an experimental study," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 73, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  28. Richard B. Freeman, 1976. "A cobweb model of the supply and starting salary of new engineers," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 29(2), pages 236-248, January.
  29. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1994. "Genetic algorithm learning and the cobweb model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-28, January.
  30. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
  31. Hugh Kelley & Daniel Friedman, 2002. "Learning to Forecast Price," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 556-573, October.
  32. Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2008. "Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 116-133, July.
  33. Canoles, W. Bruce & Thompson, Sarahelen R. & Irwin, Scott H. & France, Virginia G., 1997. "An Analysis Of The Profiles And Motivations Of Habitual Commodity Speculators," ACE OFOR Reports 14768, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
  34. C.H. Hommes & J.H. Sonnemans & J. Tuinstra & H. van de Velde, 2003. "Learning in Cobweb Experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-020/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  35. Zarkin, Gary A, 1985. "Occupational Choice: An Application to the Market for Public School Teachers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 409-46, May.
  36. Haltiwanger, John C & Waldman, Michael, 1989. "Limited Rationality and Strategic Complements: The Implications for Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(3), pages 463-83, August.
  37. Bray, Margaret M & Savin, Nathan E, 1986. "Rational Expectations Equilibria, Learning, and Model Specification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1129-60, September.
  38. Schmalensee, Richard, 1976. "An Experimental Study of Expectation Formation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 17-41, January.
  39. Sutan, Angela & Willinger, Marc, 2009. "Guessing with negative feedback: An experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1123-1133, May.
  40. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-51, September.
  41. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August.
  42. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
  43. Challet, D. & Zhang, Y.-C., 1997. "Emergence of cooperation and organization in an evolutionary game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 407-418.
  44. Honkapohja, Seppo, 1993. "Adaptive learning and bounded rationality: An introduction to basic concepts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 587-594, April.
  45. Haltiwanger, John & Waldman, Michael, 1985. "Rational Expectations and the Limits of Rationality: An Analysis of Heterogeneity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 326-40, June.
  46. Day, R. & Huang, W., 1988. "Bulls, Bears And Market Sheep," Papers m8822, Southern California - Department of Economics.
  47. Hommes, Cars & Huang, Hai & Wang, Duo, 2005. "A robust rational route to randomness in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1043-1072, June.
  48. Garber, Peter M, 1990. "Famous First Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 35-54, Spring.
  49. Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & Gardini, Laura, 2002. "Speculative behaviour and complex asset price dynamics: a global analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 173-197, October.
  50. Kyle Hyndman & Erkut Y. Ozbay & Andrew Schotter & Wolf Ze’ev Ehrblatt, 2012. "Convergence: An Experimental Study Of Teaching And Learning In Repeated Games," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 573-604, 05.
  51. James B. Bullard, 2006. "The learnability criterion and monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 203-217.
  52. Beja, Avraham & Goldman, M Barry, 1980. " On the Dynamic Behavior of Prices in Disequilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 235-48, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:06-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cees C.G. Diks).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.