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Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation

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Author Info
Bill Branch (College of William and Mary)
George W. Evans () (University of Oregon Economics Department)

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Abstract

We introduce the concept of a Misspecification Equilibrium to dynamic macroeconomics. Agents choose between a list of misspecified econometric models and base their selection on relative forecast performance. A Misspecification Equilibrium is an equilibrium stochastic process in which agents forecast optimally given their choices, with the forecasting model parameters and predictor proportions endogenously determined. For appropriate conditions on the exogenous driving process and the degree of feedback of expectations, the Misspecification Equilibrium will exhibit Intrinsic Heterogeneity. With Intrinsic Heterogeneity more than one misspecified model receives positive weight in the distribution of predictors across agents, even in the neoclassical limit in which only the most successful predictors are used.

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File URL: http://economics.uoregon.edu/papers/UO-2003-32_Evans_Intrinsic.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Oregon Economics Department in its series University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers with number 2003-32.

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Length: 30
Date of creation: 16 May 2003
Date of revision: 04 Oct 2004
Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2003-32

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Related research
Keywords: Cobweb model heterogeneous beliefs adaptive learning rational expectations.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  3. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2006. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), pages 284-309, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Sethi, Rajiv & Franke, Reiner, 1995. "Behavioural Heterogeneity under Evolutionary Pressure: Macroeconomic Implications of Costly Optimisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(430), pages 583-600, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. repec:att:wimass:19199823 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. repec:att:wimass:192017 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Branch, William A., 2002. "Local convergence properties of a cobweb model with rationally heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 63-85, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Brock, William A & Durlauf, Steven N, 2001. "Discrete Choice with Social Interactions," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 68(2), pages 235-60, April.
  9. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2001. "Evolutionary Dynamics in Financial Markets With Many Trader Types," CeNDEF Working Papers 01-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    Other versions:
  10. George Evans & Garey Ramey, 2001. "Adaptive Expectations, Underparameterization and the Lucas Critique," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2001-11, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Evans, George W & Ramey, Garey, 1992. "Expectation Calculation and Macroeconomic Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 207-24, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Haltiwanger, John C & Waldman, Michael, 1989. "Limited Rationality and Strategic Complements: The Implications for Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(3), pages 463-83, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Townsend, Robert M, 1983. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 546-88, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. repec:att:wimass:199624 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Granato, J. & Guse, E. & Sunny Wong, M.C., 2006. "Learning from the Expectations of Others," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0605, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Paul De Grauwe, 2008. "DSGE-Modelling - when agents are imperfectly informed," Working Paper Series 897, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paul De Grauwe, 2008. "Animal Spirits and Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  4. Anufriev, M. & Assenza, T. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2008. "Interest Rate Rules with Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Working Papers 08-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  5. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-21, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 26 Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Hommes, C.H., 2007. "Bounded Rationality and Learning in Complex Markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  7. Alex Brazier & Richard Harrison & Mervyn King & Tony Yates, . "The danger of inflating expectations of macroeconomic stability: heuristic switching in an overlapping generations monetary model," Bank of England working papers 303, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2006. "More hedging instruments may destabilize markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2006. "Asset Return Dynamics and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-14, University of Oregon Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Learning and Macroeconomics," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2008-3, University of Oregon Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. William Branch & Bruce McGough, 2004. "Multiple Equilibria in Heterogeneous Expectations Models," Contributions to Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1197-1197. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Paul De Grauwe, 2008. "Macroeconomic Modeling when Agents are Imperfectly Informed," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  13. Evans , George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2007. "Expectations, learning and monetary policy: an overview of recent research," Research Discussion Papers 32/2007, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Jasmina Arifovic & James B. Bullard & Olena Kostyshyna, 2007. "Social learning and monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2007-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  15. Tiziana Assenzay & Michele Berardi, 2008. "Learning in a Credit Economy," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 100, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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