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Evolutionary dynamics in financial markets with many trader types

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  • Brock,W.A.
  • Hommes,C.H.

    (University of Wisconsin-Madison, Social Systems Research Institute)

Abstract

This paper develops the notion of a Large Type Limit (LTL) describing the average behavior of adaptive evolutionary systems with many trader types. It is shown that generic and persistent features of adaptive evolutionary systems with many trader types are well described by the large type limit. Stability and bifurcation routes to instability and strange attractors are studied. An increase in the "intensity of adaption" or in the diversity of beliefs may lead to deviations from the RE fundamental benchmark and excess volatility. Simple examples of LTL are able to generate important stylized facts, such as volatility clustering and long memory, observed in real financial data.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems in its series Working papers with number 7.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:att:wimass:20017

Contact details of provider:
Postal: UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON, SOCIAL SYSTEMS RESEARCH INSTITUTE(S.S.R.I.), MADISON WISCONSIN 53706 U.S.A.

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Keywords: evolutionary systems;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Parke, William R. & Waters, George A., 2007. "An evolutionary game theory explanation of ARCH effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2234-2262, July.
  2. AMIR, Rabah & EVSTIGNEEV, Igor & HENS, Thorsten & SCHENK-HOPPÉ, Klaus Reiner, 2003. "Market selection and survival of investment strategies," CORE Discussion Papers 2003099, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  3. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  4. Orlando Gomes, 2006. "Heterogeneous Researchers in a Two-Sector Representative Consumer Economy," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 60(2), pages 113-132, November.
  5. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 2001. "Heterogeneous beliefs and and routes to complez dynamics in asset pricing models with price contingent contracts," CeNDEF Working Papers 01-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  6. Amilon, Henrik, 2008. "Estimation of an adaptive stock market model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 342-362, March.
  7. Lux, Thomas & Schornstein, Sascha, 2003. "Genetic learning as an explanation of stylized facts of foreign exchange markets," Economics Working Papers |aEconomics working paper, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  8. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Min Zheng, 2007. "The Stochastic Dynamics of Speculative Prices," Research Paper Series 208, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  9. Constantinos VORLOW & Antonios ANTONIOU & Catherine KYRTSOU, 2004. "Surrogate Data Analysis and Stochastic Chaotic Modelling: Application to Stock Exchange Returns Series," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 27, Society for Computational Economics.
  10. William R. Parke & George A. Waters, 2011. "On the Evolutionary Stability of Rational Expectations," Working Paper Series 20111002, Illinois State University, Department of Economics.
  11. Brock,W.A. & Hommes,C.H., 2002. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to complex dynamics in asset pricing models with price contingent contracts," Working papers 3, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  12. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2008. "Replicator dynamics in a Cobweb model with rationally heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 224-244, February.
  13. Orlando Gomes, 2004. "A Continuous-Time Asset Pricing Model with Boundedly Rational Heterogeneous Agents," Finance 0409055, EconWPA.
  14. Henrik Amilon, 2003. "Estimation of an Adaptive Stock Market Model with Heterogeneous Agents," Research Paper Series 107, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  15. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Zheng, Min, 2011. "An analysis of the effect of noise in a heterogeneous agent financial market model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 148-162, January.
  16. Amilon, Henrik, 2005. "Estimation of an Adaptive Stock Market Model with Heterogeneous Agents," Working Paper Series 177, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  17. Yang, J-H.S. & Satchell, S.E., 2003. "Endogenous Correlation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0321, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  18. S. Borovkova & H. Dehling & J. Renkema & H. Tulleken, 2003. "A Potential-Field Approach to Financial Time Series Modelling," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 22(2), pages 139-161, October.

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